| from CaptainsQuartersBlog.com, and on varios newssites:
Brother Moqtada's Traveling Salvation Show
Moqtada al-Sadr has once again fled to Iran, apparently after a split widened in recent weeks between the leader of the Mahdi Army and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Sadr's support had been seen as key for Maliki early in his term, but with the US pressuring Maliki for serious reform and reconciliation, Sadr and his militias have come under increasing military and political pressure:
Fiery Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has gone back to neighbouring Iran, U.S. military sources in Baghdad said on Sunday.
Earlier this year, U.S. officials said the anti-American cleric was hiding in Iran to avoid a major security crackdown in Baghdad, although his aides say he never left Iraq. ...
His lower profile has coincided with a growing rift between his movement and Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
Sadr pulled his six ministers out of Maliki's cabinet in April when the prime minister refused to set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.
The cleric's political bloc has boycotted parliament since an attack on a revered Shi'ite mosque last month in the city of Samarra and most recently rejected a landmark draft oil law.
It looks like Sadr has overplayed his hand. Had Sadr pulled his ministers out of the government six months ago, Maliki might have lost his position. Now it looks as though Maliki has successfully marginalized Sadr and found enough support to form a governing coalition without him.
That puts Sadr in a tough position, both politically and militarily. It shows that the Shi'ites may have tired of Sadr's "fiery" oratory and might have more interest in burying the hatchet than previously thought. Iraqis want an end to war, and that won't happen as long as Sadr continues with his militias-cum-death squads. Pushing Sadr out of the coalition could create a center of reconciliation in the National Assembly, especially if the surge can hold down the violence to keep the retribution attacks to a minimum.
Militarily, it makes it easier to go after the Mahdis. If Sadr isn't necessary for Maliki to maintain his position, then the US can go on the offensive against Sadr's forces in Baghdad with much less concern over the political fallout. That seems to be what we're seeing; recent reports show that the US controls 50% of Baghdad, and recent troop arrivals promise even more stability.
None of this matters if the Iraqis don't make quick improvements on several political fronts. They have to get some sort of oil revenue plan implemented -- which Sadr had blocked -- and find a way to re-engage the Sunnis in public life. The Sunnis need a reason to work with the Shi'ites, and the Shi'ites need to give up their revenge fantasies if they want a stable Iraq.
And don't count Sadr out. He's a cat with more than nine lives, at least thus far. A few more escapes to Iran, though, and even his followers will have trouble ignoring the streak of yellow that has become more and more apparent. And as Bill Roggio notes at The Fourth Rail, these "successful disappearances" make it clear that Sadr's nationalism is all on the surface.
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