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Subject: How long before Iraqi forces are formidable enough for Iraq to exist independantly?
jastayme3    6/11/2008 9:35:47 PM
The news reports do say we are getting there. If so we can pretty much say we have won in that theater. So the question is how long?
 
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Jeff_F_F    A question in reply, and my answer   6/26/2008 7:36:46 PM
If the Soviet threat to western Europe had not existed, and the US had pulled out of western Europe, how many pan-European wars would have occurred by now, and how many hundreds of thousands of American soldiers participating in those wars would have lost their lives? How many tens or even hundreds of millions of Europeans would have died? Instead we stayed, and Europe is at peace today, and we aren't fighing a war there once each generation anymore.
It isn't just a matter of Iraq sustaining itself. It is that it is cheaper in terms of money and blood to maintain our presence in an area we have liberated to maintain the peace than it is to have to go back and fight another war there.
 
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jastayme3       7/7/2008 2:37:57 PM

If the Soviet threat to western Europe had not existed, and the US had pulled out of western Europe, how many pan-European wars would have occurred by now, and how many hundreds of thousands of American soldiers participating in those wars would have lost their lives? How many tens or even hundreds of millions of Europeans would have died? Instead we stayed, and Europe is at peace today, and we aren't fighing a war there once each generation anymore.


It isn't just a matter of Iraq sustaining itself. It is that it is cheaper in terms of money and blood to maintain our presence in an area we have liberated to maintain the peace than it is to have to go back and fight another war there.

That may be. But public opinion won't take it indefinitely in  Iraq. Therefore we have to think about that
question because victory or defeat may depend on it.

 
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jonodavidson    9,500 Hummers   7/18/2008 5:31:37 AM

Good question.  I watch CSPAN from time to time to keep an eye on our Congress.  A general recently informed Congress that America had decided to give 9500 armored Hum Vees equipped with weapons systems to the Iraqi security forces for no charge.  The Iraqis agreed to pay the costs for all of the maintenance requirements, but we are transferring our military?s vehicles over to the Iraqi security forces.  We have already turned over 1,000 Hum Vees to them, and we expect to give them the rest by summer?s end.  The Hum Vees will provide the Iraqi security forces with a capacity to overcome the domestic resistance to the Iraqi government, but the Hum Vees will not enable Iraqi security forces to provide for their own national security.  We will allow them to provide for their own security against domestic insurrections, but we will maintain responsibility for their national defense.

 

The Iraqi security forces will not be ?fully matured? until the Iraqi government can afford to pay for all of the weapons, munitions, equipment, wheeled vehicles, armored vehicles, helicopters, airplanes, and all of the other supplies our own army needs to engage a hostile military in modern battle.  That is why John McCain said that we will keep our forces there for a hundred years if necessary, because it may take a hundred years before the Iraqi regime can afford to pay for everything we would use to provide for our own security.  There is no amount of training, seasoning, or experience the Iraqi military can gain that will replace the equipment a modern military force needs to engage an enemy force in war.  When we invaded their country, we made sure to destroy all of those things when we found them, and we are not about to replace those things we had destroyed for free.

 

Our forces could leave tomorrow, if we left them all of our military equipment.  They can probably contract the services of our security contractors directly to receive the training on any equipment they are not familiar with already.  Hussein spent billions of dollars on his military each year building up Iraq?s military power.  Hussein provided a buffer between Iran and the oil reserves in the Arabian Peninsula.  The Bush Administration does not want to turn over control of Iraq to their own government, because we cannot trust them to secure the oil reserves of the Arabian Peninsula for our businesses.  Bush intends to keep our forces in Iraq until the oil reserves in the peninsula are exhausted, even if it takes a hundred years.  This is called Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL) by the marines in theatre for good cause.  The Iraqi forces will never be formidable enough to exist on their own and independent until the world exhausts the oil supplies of the Arabian Peninsula.

 

 
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Softwar    Trip Wire   7/18/2008 9:41:32 AM
I'd give them a decade to rebuild - it takes about 10 years to muster a good force and train it.
 
Of course, I do not agree with the bleak assessments posted here.  I think a bit of history is in order.  Specifically Germany and Korea.  Both were at the tip of the spear in hot wars.  Both had - and still have - large American military forces on their soil.  The US forces in Germany during the Cold War were not enough to stop a full scale Soviet invasion through the Fulda Gap.  It's kind of hard to stop 50,000 tanks.  It was - however - a trip wire.  It served to deter agression because to attack would draw the US into battle.
 
The same goes for South Korea.  There is simply no way 30,000 US soldiers are going to stop an invasion by the DPRK.  However, they are there because they are a trip wire.  A thin red line over which Kim dare not step because it will bring the full weight of the US to bear upon him.
 
Expect the same for Iraq.  Iraqi forces can progress to match or even exceed the professional and excellent forces of Germany and South Korea.  This will enhance their security and enable their nation to make decisions based on their own security needs.  US forces can remain in theatre as a "trip wire" over which the Ayatollahs cannot risk to trigger a shooting war.
 
It's called stability.  Democracies thrive on stability.
 
Don't take my word for this position.  Take the word of the ever changing OBAMA - who has gone from pull 'em all out now to - leave a force in place to take care of security.  Sure, this has been McCain's position all along - so no need to flip/flop there - but its certainly an eye opener to the Bush haters and anti-war freaks who swore by the 'Bama and have since been betrayed by his flip/flop on the war.
 
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