It is no great secret that there will likely be a war in one to two months. Reports from the ground-- increased intensiveness of reserve training; new military installations in the north; a reciprocity of posturing with Syria, etc-- all indicate the likelihood.
My guess is that, contrary to what the Arab media might espouse, the "involved" Israeli public (politicians, military personnel, soldiers, and informed citizens) are quite optimistic that this war will not be the quagmire that Lebanon II was.
I don't see any reason for this view. It is true that the military is better prepared. But the citizenry is not. One centerpiece of Israel's former war/survival strategy was its focus on the homefront. But that is no longer the case.
Further, all the "staunch," and "experienced," and "iron-willed," Israeli military men-turned-politicians are not who they once were. Case in point: Ehud Barak: great soldier, crappy leader. Ephraim Sneh: good general, bad strategic thinker (see last week's op-ed in IHT/Haaretz endorsing "bolstering" Fatah). The list goes on (Ariel Sharon; Bibi; Mofaz etc).
The war will be serious. At best, though, it's a gearing-up for the Israeli population so it can understand loss, when the real-deal comes. It's a chance for Israel's population centers to get re-acquainted with the political realities of the "Mideast."
At worst, it will be Lebanon II on a broader scale, with bigger missiles, and more of them.
If you're in Israel, my suggestion is to get dug in. Or get out. |