It looks like the end of multiconfessional, compromise-based Lebanon, and the advent of al-Loobnaan al-Islami. Nobody inside Lebanon has the military might to prevent the Hez from taking over, and I doubt that Jordan and Saudyiah will ever make a move in support of their beleaguered business partners. As to Paris and Washington, their utter silence is very telling. Once again, the Lebanese will have proof that they can expect no assistance from the cowardly West.
War is coming!

I do not share Shirrush's gloomy view.

1st  With Hezbollah being an Iranian puppet and the Arabs fearing Persians more than Jews, there are bound to be be plenty of Machiavellian oppertunities favorable for Israel (and the US should they want to).

2nd The following article in Parameters paints a different picture. Source:
"http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/08spring/proctor.htm"

There is little doubt that Iranian-backed Hezbollah is a powerful force in Lebanon. It ably demonstrated its military capability in the three-week conflict with Israel in 2006. Hezbollah is also a political party, controlling 14 seats in the Lebanese Parliament (11 percent of the total 128 seats) and 21 percent of the municipalities across Lebanon.⁷ During reconstruction following the 2006 conflict, Hezbollah frequently co-opted aid from the West and distributed it through a network of hospitals, schools, and social organizations. The organization is firmly woven into the fabric of Lebanese society.⁸

Hezbollah is not, however, the most powerful military force in Lebanon. The Lebanese army consists of 20 mechanized, airborne, and commando brigades and regiments, equipped with Russian, French, and British equipment. All told, it can field some 70,000 soldiers. The Lebanese military also has a navy with 27 boats, mainly of British and French origin, and an air force that has five British fighters and about 40 helicopters of French, British, and American manufacture.⁹ This military is capable of independent operations within Lebanon. For example, in 2007, the Lebanese military dealt a series of crushing blows to al Qaeda-linked Fatah al-Islam near the Palestinian refugee camp, Nahr el-Bared.¹⁰

By comparison, Hezbollah?s full-time strength is only 1,000 guerilla fighters equipped with long-range rockets and antitank, antiship, and antiaircraft missiles. In emergencies, between 5,000 and 10,000 reserve fighters can be mobilized.¹¹ Hezbollah has no navy or air force. While Hezbollah was able to launch katyusha rockets into Israel until the last day of the 2006 war, there is reason to believe that it lost much of its military capability. Israeli and independent observers claim that as many as 500 to 600 Hezbollah fighters may have been killed.¹² Attesting even more to the weakness of the organization, as part of the peace accords, Hezbollah permitted the Lebanese military to enter the south of Lebanon, a move it had consistently opposed since the end of the Lebanese civil war.¹³

Nor is Hezbollah the most powerful political force in Lebanon. Following the June 2005 elections, the anti-Syrian coalition Tayyar al-Mustaqbal (Future Tide) gained control of the government with 72 parliamentary seats.¹⁴ This coalition was instrumental in the so-called Cedar Revolution of March 2005, which eventually forced the Syrian military to withdraw from Lebanon, ending 30 years of occupation. The protest the group organized was able to bring as many as a million people from across Lebanese society into the streets.¹⁵ Hezbollah?s counterprotests only mustered approximately 200,000 individuals.¹⁶

Probably the most compelling argument against Lebanese membership in the Shia Crescent is demographic. Only between 30 and 40

I dunno FJV I have to respectfully disagree with you comments about fearing Persians more than Jews. Unfortunately there is still a lot of resentment amongst Lebanese (Maronite Druze and Muslim alike) against Israel post "Peace for Galilee" and Hizbollah has done a fair job of winning hearts and minds "funny how a sweaty wad of cash can do that". I am going to disagree with the article posted *cringe* i realize the source is great and i am not as well informed as the US Military but i think its historically naive to dismiss them so readily. While we say we can kick their ass militarily we wil not be able to get to that point politically and Hizbollah knows this. As for having only 1000 fighters is also naive there are 1.2 million co-religionists and Syrian secret service are still a powerful and feared force in Lebanon. Also a civil war is quite a polarizing force. When the lines are drawn in the sand (if it comes to that) i believe Hiz could easily get a 5 figure untrained sympathetic guerrilla force overnight and there are lots of AK's and RPG's in cosmoline just waiting. While i do not believe Hizbollah could win, it will surely be horrific as most civil wars are.

On another note i feel Hizbollah is a weapon of mass distraction. When they IAEA was coming down hard on Iran for enrichment summer 06 we had a flare up in Leb and now that we are sabre rattling against Iran for their support of Iraqi militia's we have Hiz goin ballistic again. I find this interesting and effective manipulation.

Maybe im crazy? I am sure someone here will let me know ;)

Thank you FJV for the article.
There should be, however, a caveat regarding news agencies, namely Reuters, AP, and especially AFP, which are de facto under the Syro-islamists' orders to downplay the gravity of situation until their takeover of Lebanon is complete. This is the same situation as in Gaza. It is much better for these agencies people to be alive, earning a salary and lying than getting abducted and beheaded for the crime of reporting the situation "as is".

While it is possible that the figures quoted are indeed accurate, this dry exposé of the forces present in Lebanon does not take into consideration the utter lack of substance of the Lebanese armed forces, and the lack of training, weaponry, and logistic depth of the Mustaqbal coalition's alleged militias. The Lebanese army, which is 40% Shi'ite, has been heavily infiltrated by Hizb-Allah, to the point of paralysis if not complete control. It is, in fact, already coming apart, and has been unable of enforcing the elected government's will, to the effect that the Hizb now controls most of Lebanon's strategic gateways, Beyrouth's airport and Beyrouth's harbor, and has conquered, during these last two days, the totality of this city's Sunni neighborhoods including the Hariri family's mansion. All of the majority's media have been shut down as well.
Just as importantly, this article entirely fails to mention the fact that Syria's rather considerable weight is indeed on the Hizb's tray of the Lebanese balance, and also can do what it wants across the long and very porous border.  The Syrian retreat of 2005 is history, and has always been a scam of sorts since the entire Syrian intel infrastructure was left in place and under Hizb-Allah's protection, but these excellent analysts o'er there at the US Army War College are seeing no evil. 

Some Lebanese Army units are now reported taking defensive positions in (Christian) East Beyrouth, but if it comes to blows, I do not see them capable of sustaining Hizb-Allah's (and Syria's) superior firepower. A couple of Jordanian/Fwench/USMC brigades with air cover and arty might tip the scales a bit, but we don't see them coming, do we?  

The excrement has indeed reached the centrifugal blower.
Lebanon will bleed, and so will we.

nice articles btw

this broke in Lebanon around 1/2 hour ago.

from the Daily Star Lebanon


Nasrallah has a chance to write his own legacy
By The Daily Star

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Editorial

Some are condemning what Hizbullah did this week as a coup d'etat, while others are defending it as a counter-putsch. That debate will not end soon, but there is no doubting that Lebanon's political status quo has been radically altered in a very few days. It is too early to predict where this will lead the country, but whereas the seat of actual Lebanese power has long been in doubt, for now at least it has a clear address: that of Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. He may continue to shun any official position, but barring an unforeseen turn of events, the leader of the Lebanese resistance has just acquired a hitherto unprecedented amount of national political responsibility.

Hizbullah's track record on previous occasions of ascendancy bodes well for this instance: After the resistance movement forced Israel to pull its occupation forces from most of the South in 2000, it granted far more lenient treatment to Lebanese who had collaborated with the enemy than most established armies ordinarily do. This time, though, Nasrallah has made himself responsible for agendas of incalculably greater breadth.

Due largely to the political squabbles that have paralyzed Lebanon since 2005, urgent matters have been left waiting. If Nasrallah's gambit this week was aimed at ending those squabbles rather than responding with just another tit-for-tat escalation, it is now his job to make possible the resolution of several quandaries. The economy is adrift, the vagueness of the national defense strategy that worked so well in the 1990s has become a liability, the existing electoral law is fatally flawed, and deep mistrust marks both political and sectarian boundaries. In addition, depending on how the consequences of this week's events play out, the Lebanese could find themselves besieged like the Palestinians after they elected Hamas in January 2006. Above all else, there is a need to engage in real dialogue, not the profitless trade of empty slogans.

Nasrallah's task now is to create an inclusive environment conducive to the answering of these and other challenges. He and his party cannot be expected to come up with all of the solutions, and nor should they want to: If they cannot draw other players - and not just their closest allies - into the process, Nasrallah runs the risk of being cast as a dictator by default.

Hizbullah and its partners have frequently argued that their counterparts in the March 14 Forces coalition were not interested in true partnership, only in dictating terms. Now Nasrallah has to prove that his side is ready, willing and able to live up to its own expectations, and speed is of the essence: After 15 years of civil war, 15 of diluted sovereignty, and three of limbo, the Lebanese deserve at last to have a level of politics commensurate with their talents and energies. If Nasrallah is the man who makes this happen, history will judge his actions to have been a revolution, not a coup, and a long-overdue one at that.

Shirrush If that was for me then you should have read the title of my post instead of going off half-cocked. Fight your real enemies sir. You cant quantify Hizbollah militarily anymore which is what a lot of people tend to do and my posting of that article was to show what the media (not all) in Lebanon is putting out there for public consumption. Nasrallah has done a good job in gaining public support for Hizbollah. The article was to prove my point that if a civil war breaks out he could get a large militia quickly. Now it seems they are pulling back, but what is the current government going to do. Hizbollah has shown they have the means and ability to disrupt the Lebanese government, The lebanese government will do nothing at their own demise i bet. Right now the time is right to dismantle Hizbollah but it wont be quick or without bloodshed. Hiz has proved it will fight if the Government goes against them. That should be reason enough to disarm them (by force) either you are a political force supporting the government or a proxy army. You cannot have it both ways and we know they are simply a iranian proxy hell bent on the destruction of Israel. While they wait for the war with Israel they pump Iranian cash to the Lebanese people winning hearts and minds and train Iraqi's to fight the US.

Yesterday, the asshats that pose as military analysts for Israel's leading Arutz 2 TV channel were telling us that Jumblatt's PSP forces, i.e. the Druze meta-tribe of Lebanon, were being trounced by the Hez in the very heart of the Shuf, their mountain stronghold. This had the effect of causing significant anxiety to their Israeli correligionaries, as well as to the rest of us who care for the non-Muslim communities around here, and it should be noted that since the Druze community has some serious clout here, running the IDF among many other things, they were bound to remind the rest of us of our undeniable obligation towards them, and thus nudge Israel to somehow intervene and save the Jumblatt's gang asses.

Now, Michael Totten's website has the story, and it is rather different from what we heard yesterday on the tube:

May 12, 2008