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Subject: BHow bad is it guys, now that we know the Muslim Brotherhood has Egypt?
heraldabc    12/1/2011 5:34:27 PM
I want an Israeli viewpoint. You already know MINE. Hamilcar
 
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Shirrush    Not so bad...   12/2/2011 5:32:46 PM
...For us and in the meantime, I mean. For the Egyptian people, it will be quite a different story. They have voted, and they are going to get what they deserve. The country is fast running out of financial reserves, and a crunch on vital food imports is only a couple of months away. Egypt will become a huge version of Somalia, and will be increasingly dependant on the Oil Arabs' aid to feed its immense population, thus possibly preventing it from getting too close to the Iranian mullahcracy. Securing Israel's southern border against terrorist incursions from lawless Sinai will become increasingly costly, and the defense budget will slowly ramp up to close of what it was in the bad old Seventies, and that means that life is going to get a lot tougher for ordinary Israelis. Nobody here sees Egypt going to war anytime soon. They know they will lose if they do, but the Camp David agreement is dead and buried. It was never much of a peace mind you, and bilateral trade never really picked up. For Israel, it was good while it lasted, since the reduction in military expenditures allowed for real development and economic expansion. OTOH, the ordinary Egyptian citizen never saw any upside to it, since all Egypt got for it was US military aid, and you can't eat Abrams tanks. There is also a (slim) possibility that since Hama"ss is a Moslem Brotherhood offshoot, and the Gaza population is culturally indistinguishable from the Nile Delta Egyptians, Egypt will gradually assume sovereignty over the Strip, thereby voiding the "Palestinian" narrative and enticing Jordan to do the same with the West Bank Arabs. This would be an outcome that does not entail peace of any kind, but at least it would have the merits of clarity. The Islamic winter that has just descended on the Arab world will clear eventually, and Israel needs to make sure it does not figure among its casualties. As I said before, this will be very costly, but the blood cost can be minimized.  
 
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heraldabc       12/3/2011 8:42:22 AM
Thanks. I knew I would get a clear level-headed answer from you, Shirrush. Nevertheless, watch yourselves. A Dutch pharmaceutical lab has been involved in some insanely stupid influenza research that caught my eye.
 
 
I am not sure WHY those idiots thought it was necessary to attempt this idiocy, but this smells of just the same kind of shennanigans as our friend Agha Khan used to organize back in the day. Unknown money funding devoted to an operation and to research paths that makes no common sense always rings my alarm bell. WHY would you create an artificial infectious airborne transmittable agent worse than the Spanish Flu of 1918? And why Holland?
 
H.
 
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Shirrush       12/3/2011 11:53:29 AM
Funny you're jumping to the H5N1 bird flu topic without warning, but I can guess your associative pathway included the fact that the largest number of human fatalities (about a dozen AFAIK) caused by this virus have been in Egypt. Influenza, as well as all other sheathed viruses, would make piss-poor bioweapons as they are too fragile to be weaponized. They can be used, but an infected human vector would be necessary. A suicide bomber equipped with conventional explosives would be far deadlier, and quicker. Viral epidemics can be stopped as soon as the key surface antigen of a causative agent has been identified. The Israeli Prime Minister Office lavishly funds the Biological Institute in Ness-Ziona, which job it is precisely to do that, while conducting research on which biological and chemical agents are most likely to be selected by a genocidal foe. By the way, the Israeli MoH has apparently broken this year's flu epidemic, by handing out European-made vaccine shots FOC and without too much bureaucracy. I just walked into the clinic a fortnight ago and came out vaccinated after five minutes. The nurse was unusually charming, a far cry from the customary KGB medical corps veterans who populate our HMO facilities...

I have some professional experience with developing legit bioweapons back in the early '80s. These things are fiddly as jit in the field, and very few such projects yielded marketable products. Just google up "bioinsecticides" and come out with practically nothing you can buy if you don't believe me. 'Tis a pity though, because this Nomuraea rileyi... fungus and a few others really did a pretty cool job in the lab...
 
 
 
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CJH    H   12/26/2011 12:15:39 PM
 
Thanks. I knew I would get a clear level-headed answer from you, Shirrush. Nevertheless, watch yourselves. A Dutch pharmaceutical lab has been involved in some insanely stupid influenza research that caught my eye.
 
 
I am not sure WHY those idiots thought it was necessary to attempt this idiocy, but this smells of just the same kind of shennanigans as our friend Agha Khan used to organize back in the day. Unknown money funding devoted to an operation and to research paths that makes no common sense always rings my alarm bell. WHY would you create an artificial infectious airborne transmittable agent worse than the Spanish Flu of 1918? And why Holland?
 
H.
 
It is too bad this article does not spell out the sources of funding for these "shennanigans". It would be interesting to find out who is knowingly paying for these trails in developing more transmissible illnesses.
 
 
 
This is food for the paranoid imagination. But this has to be about the money. The unstated here is the most eloquent.
 
 
 
 
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CJH    H   12/26/2011 12:22:46 PM
Viral epidemics can be stopped as soon as the key surface antigen of a causative agent has been identified.
 
For a successful attack, isn't the key to introduce the disease in a way in which the ability to recognize it and to identify have been compromised in some way?
 
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CJH    H   12/26/2011 12:26:25 PM
Is the Israeli re-acquisition of Sinai as a buffer zone as a corollary to a strengthened defense establishment out of the question provided ?
 
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Reactive       12/26/2011 4:02:56 PM
The ERASMUS study as well as another by the university of Wisconsin (I believe) had similar results, that H5N1 required only around 5 mutations to become aerosol-transmissive - and that to create this new variant required only fairly predictable mutation pathways.
 
Whether the mortality rate is 60% (existing H5N1) or <6% (more likely) in the new more-transmissable variant, an outbreak would rapidly test the ability of antiviral production and distribution before significant casualties developed, but it's important to note that the expected transmission is only roughly equivalent to that of seasonal flu.. I.e. This isn't an apocalyptic event, even if extremely serious. 
 
What is interesting is that the Labs that carried out this research are (reportedly) Biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) rather than BSL-4 (maximum security for dealing with the real nasties), that should at least raise some eyebrows as to appropriate BSL requirements for viruses that don't yet exist but might do..
 
I do think there is a real risk that rogue states (or terrorists) might decide to play with extremely virulent pathogens, I forget the exact details but there are a few "sweet spots" in disease modelling that result in mass casualties, extremely high (100%) mortality with an extremely long infectious incubation period for example (AIDS), for the sorts of epidemics that would severely disrupt life as we know it for a significant period of time..
 
I'm skeptical that flu really fits the bill as the "nightmare scenario", millions of casualties globally are possible as with Spanish flu in 1918 and that may even rise to tens of millions when combined with other factors but there is a high degree of resilience in the population, the virus itself loves mutating AND antivirals are easily developed - if there were to be a deliberate attempt to engineer a true worldwide blight it would be using a viral type that is far harder to develop antivirals for based on some of the highly-contagious strains that have been contained largely thanks to geographical isolation alone - quite what anyone would get from creating such an uncontrollable weapon is hard to ascertain, perhaps PETA hate humans enough... 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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heraldabc    Don't even joke about PETA, R.    1/3/2012 8:01:39 AM
I know several of those member morons, personally. They are crazy enough. Fortunately, they are also incredibly stupid and lack the discipline and skill to weaponize a virus.
 
H.
 
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heraldabc    Don't even joke about PETA, R.    1/3/2012 8:04:12 AM

 
H.
 
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heraldabc    Don't even joke about PETA, R.    1/3/2012 8:05:30 AM

Yes. The Sinai was doable in 67. Today I'm not sure Israel wants the administrative and terrorist threat headaches. Lot more hostile people to chase around and keep tabs on now.
 
H.


Is the Israeli re-acquisition of Sinai as a buffer zone as a corollary to a strengthened defense establishment out of the question provided ?
 
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