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Subject: Losing The Mandate Of Heaven
SYSOP    7/9/2020 5:14:35 AM
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trenchsol       7/9/2020 3:23:42 PM
The article mentions a deal between Iran and Syria. It is about improving military cooperation, particularly air defenses. I thnk it is significant. Russia controls most capable assets of Syria's air defenses. Some believe that Russian assets can't stop Israeli air attacks, others think that Russia might have interest in ongoing Israeli attacks. To me it looks like Russia is losing influence over Syrian regime. First it is hesitating to use assets against Israel attacks and second is hesitating to confront Turkey over Idlib. Therefore regime seems to be turning to Iran for more support. That is bad because Russia has its interests, but in the long run they want to achieve stability. The same can't be said for Iran. Considering Libya, I am not an expert, but I remember what I read about campaigns of WWII. Libya is a flat terrain without many natural obstacles. Not many places to set up defenses. Recent counterattack by GNA has captured much of media attention. GNA rapidly advanced from Tripoli to Sirte after breaking the siege around the capital. However, map doesn't show much between Tripoli and Sirte. It appears that LNA lost a lot of terrain, but City of Sirte seems to be simply a "next stop", a logical place to fall back to. Wagner Group seems to have built quite a reputation in Libya. I have found an article about fighters trained and brought to Libya by Turkey. They and the rest of GNA seems to fear Wagner a lot. They believe that Wagner operatives rarely miss their targets, both with small arms and artillery.
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BernardZ       7/11/2020 9:15:21 AM
Something goes wrong in Iran, rather than admit that it was the Iranian government fault, they blame Israel.
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