Assuming a qualified sharpshooter (i.e., someone who got through boot and Infantry School with adequate marks), an M-16A2 or M4 carbine in good shape and sighted in, standard ball ammo and no jams (don't laugh- the First Rule of Combat is "S**t Happens"), there should be a roughly 99% first-hit probability at 100 (yards or metres, your choice). That's just a hit, by the way; whether or not it's a "stop" is more problematic (where you hit the guy, is he wearing a ballistic vest, is he hyped up on drugs, fanaticism, frenzy, etc.). Generally if you can see him, you can hit him- if you don't have a line of sight, you normally don't shoot unless on orders; i.e., suppressive fire, harassment, or as part of a "Mad Minute" or Recon By Fire (they are two different things, no matter what Hollywood thinks). If you can find it, an older (1990-vintage) gaming book titled "Edge Of The Sword, Part 1" by Kevin Dockery gives the actual hit statistics for over 100 common infantry/SpecOps weapons at various ranges. This is, of course, based on the weapons' inherent accuracy; how much of their sheer mechanical ability is actually useful to the shooter is up to said shooter. Hope this helps. Cheers. eon

One should add that is from a stationary firing position and not receiving incoming fire. The adrenaline factor when under stress (being fired upon) makes the hit probability much lower (depends then upon the exp. of the soldier) Every retired NCO will tell you that most of his greenies dump a mag at the sky when there is incoming. And proudly tell you of the one guy in the squad who was not a and properly returned fire. *shrugs* human nature - you try to train it out of them.