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Subject: Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!
Roman    10/3/2003 7:36:34 PM
www. [quote] What now of the Saudi/US pact? by Al Venter Three recent events are likely to have a significant effect on future relations between Washington and Riyadh. The first was a spate of attacks on USA nationals living in Saudi Arabia. That was followed by the final withdrawal of the last US serviceman from the Kingdom and finally, the news late September that Saudi Arabia has embarked on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons. According to a Saudi spokesman, increased volatility in the Middle East, which includes the recent US invasion of Iraq and escalating unrest in Israel, have made a 'security reassessment' imperative. The fact that the Saudi government is prepared to contemplate the nuclear option is of profound significance to the West. David Albright, head of the Washington strategic think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security, said that he doubted whether the Saudis would try to build a nuclear bomb. Instead, he speculated that although Riyadh "might attempt to buy something nuclear... I do not seriously believe that anyone would sell it a nuclear weapon". What is clear is that Saudi/US relations are presently being subjected to intense scrutiny in the US media, much of it initiated by the 12 May bombings linked to Al-Qaeda dissidents. The present debate is centred on three fundamental issues: whether the Saudi government is doing all it can to counter terrorism, the extent of infiltration into elements of the Saudi hierarchy by Al-Qaeda and to what extent influential Saudi citizens were involved in the events of 11 September. This was revealed in classified sections of a congressional report on the terrorist attacks that was later leaked to the media. The claim has been made that some Saudi citizens - possibly Saudi intelligence agents - had links with some of the 11 September hijackers. That said, there have been watershed changes in Saudi security since a spate of Al-Qaeda-led attacks on expatriate and Saudi targets in and around Riyadh last May. US President George W Bush declared the event a wake-up call for the Saudi royal family. For his part, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal explained that Al-Qaeda has made a bad tactical error. Instead of the revolutionary effect that it had planned for, he said that the movement has succeeded only "in angering and uniting Saudi Arabia in resisting and confronting the subversive work that they are doing". Interesting too is that much of this output is carefully couched within what both sides call the 'longtime strategic partnership' between Saudi Arabia and the USA, just as it was after the 1995 bombing of the US military mission in Riyadh and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing. However, at least one US intelligence official has declared that while the noises coming from Riyadh sound good, "it is far from clear that the problems of the US/Saudi partnership are amenable to tactical adjustments". He pointed to US law-enforcement officials being refused access to any of the family of the 15 Saudi hijackers involved in the 11 September attacks, even though the Saudis offered limited help in obtaining DNA samples from family members of some of those involved. Washington has also conceded that, since May, the Saudis have broken up "six to eight" Al-Qaeda cells operating within the country, beginning with the shooting of Yousif Salih Fahad al-Ayeeri, the senior Al-Qaeda operative responsible for orchestrating the May attacks. Operating under the pseudonym of 'Swift Sword' he was gunned down in a Riyadh street as he tried to flee in his car. Shortly afterwards, security officials uncovered three large arms caches of 20 tonnes of explosives and military equipment. The haul included grenades, automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades said to have been intended for another attack. More than 200 Al-Qaeda-linked 'dissidents' have since been arrested in a dragnet that also ensnared Ayeeri. According to Jamal Khashoggi, a former newspaper editor, now a senior adviser to the Saudi ambassador in London, the terrorists were clearly planning another big attack in the Kingdom. It has since been disclosed by Prince Nayef, Saudi interior minister, that Al-Qaeda had established a string of military training camps on Saudi Arabian soil. Consequently, his security forces had raided a number of farms and safe houses throughout the kingdom in which 20 terrorist 'suspects' and a dozen Saudi police officers were killed in the fighting. [/quote] Oh my word! This is not at all what we need right now. I sincerely hope they make the decision not to acquire nuclear weapons, but unfortunately I am sceptical of their goodwill on this matter or of the fact that the US will be able to persuade them not to choose that route.
 
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Roman    Link to the story   10/3/2003 7:42:07 PM
I forgot to include the link to the stoey, so here it is: http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jiaa/jiaa031003_1_n.shtml
 
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FJV    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!   10/4/2003 4:01:44 AM
Sound a lot like they are playing media games. Trying to raise a scare to get us to do their bidding. Or to raise media pressure against America (feeding the anti war protests etc.) I suppose that when the US leaves Saudi Arabia they will still leave their intelligence networks in place (US would be stupid not to have an intel network in Saudi Arabia). Any attempts at aquiring nukes could then be detected and bombed (covertly or overtly).
 
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bsl    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!   10/4/2003 8:28:55 PM
"Trying to raise a scare to get us to do their bidding. Or to raise media pressure against America (feeding the anti war protests etc.)" Is it? It doesn't sound like their traditional form of international policy. The Saudis have a history back practically to the beginning of avoiding anything which looks like direct confrontations with powerful states. More so if they don't have powerful backing. The preferred Saudi style involves professions of friendship, bribes, both direct and indirect to people they feel can help them. If they work against a powerful country, they tend to do so, quietly, behind the scenes, and through other hands. If a direct threat to go nuclear came out of the Saudi leadership, I'd say, at the very least, they were on the verge of panic, and I'd question the stability of anyone involved in the threat. For one thing, the Saudis have used America as their principle backer in the world since the WW2 era. For another, in the present context, a statement that they were going nuclear would not be a simple barb directed at Washington, it would be something close to a dare to Washington to stop them, and this when America has conquered Afghanistan, then Iraq. And, Iraq precisely on a claim of a *threat* from Iraqi WMD programs. IOW, it would tend to look, a lot, like a dare to Washington to do to Riyadh what they've just done to Baghdad. At first glance, anyway, this is an exceedingly stupid idea. There is something here we're not seeing, assuming the story is correct.
 
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Final Historian    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!   10/4/2003 10:24:51 PM
I agree with you on this one BSL. Something fishy here. Especially because we would never let the Fraudis get their hands on nukes. The potentional for Al Qaeda grabbing them is too high.
 
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Ex-pat2    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!   10/5/2003 11:08:50 AM
Given the huge financial support to Al Queda (some would say protection money) - one would assume that at least the same amount of Saudi money found its way into the development of Pakistan's "Islamic Bomb". Any doubt the Sauds can get one that they've already paid for? And while the high-powered friends of the Sauds in the highest levels of our government may still trust the House of Saud...... Well I can only ask, where is the Shah of Iran today? Speaking of which - with Iran about to get their own nukes the Wahabbis want theirs as well. A comforting thought indeed, as we continue searching for "fools gold" in Iraq.
 
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Roman    It does make some sense on their part...   10/5/2003 5:00:56 PM
Think about it - they have just witnessed an invasion of Iraq and they are aware that there is general distrust of Saudi Arabia in the West. In fact, many people claim that one of the reasons for invading Iraq is to enable the USA to break with the Saudi Regime. At this moment, though, with US troops embroiled in Iraq, USA is in no position to invade anyone for a while. This is particularly the case, since no WMD has been found in Iraq and the war was highly unpopular the world over and even significantly unpopular in the US. Bush will not contemplate another war at least until after the election in 2004. This gives Saudi's a window of opportunity. If they acquire nukes now, nobody will dare attack them later - see North Korea. This is very logical and if I were a leader of a state that is unpopular in the USA, I would also hurry to acquire nuclear weapons as quickly as possible, especially after witnessing what happened in Iraq and comparing it to US treatment of North Korea.
 
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FJV    Some thoughts.   10/6/2003 11:12:42 AM
I may not be an expert on Saudi Arabia (understatement of the year). But somehow I get the same feeling with these statements as with Saudi peace proposals for Israel. Also I don't think it would be smart to react too alarmed at Saudi statements. If Saudi Arabia or other nations find out the USA can be manipulated just by saying you want nukes, then we will be hearing such statements left and right. All this doesn't mean that you don't silently prepare for the possibility that the Saudi's really are aquiring nukes. That's why a good intell network in Saudi Arabia is so important, maybe even more important than the one in Iraq. Could also be that the Saudis are trying to find answers for facing the new situation in the Middle East and this is just one of the possibilities they consider. I think a good option for keeping the Saudis in power would be for them to allow a small part of the country to open up to Western influences, while keeping the majority of the country (and the power base) firmly under Saudi control. PS. If they acquire nukes now, nobody will dare attack them later. Unless all the nukes can be taken out if the US strikes with nukes first. For complete nuclear deterrence you would need a second strike capability. It all depends on the strength weakness, oppertunity threat analysis the US makes.
 
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Phoenix Rising    RE:It does make some sense on their part...   10/6/2003 11:13:58 AM
The problem is that, Western antipathy to the American action in Iraq does not correspond to increased sympathy for nuclear proliferation. Quite the contrary, one of the reasons cited by European academics (they do have a few) for opposing the war in Iraq was that it would drive proliferation, something which we all oppose. Therefore, the NPT is still an important document to Europe, America, and other Western powers (Japan, ROK, Australia, etc.). Just because Germany doesn't like us at the moment doesn't mean that they're all for DPRK or anyone else acquiring nuclear weapons. Proliferation would still have consequences, and Western law enforcement and intelligence agencies are still cooperating regarding nonproliferation efforts, even as their leaders butt heads in public. The everyday agents in the CIA, BND, MI6, etc. are not so different from one another, and generally find ways to do their jobs regardless of the political mudslinging going on on camera. This is important because it's unlikely that Saudi Arabia has the expertise necessary to build an indigenous weapon; ergo, they would be forced to pursue such aims externally, where they'd be vulnerable to discovery and interdiction. Furthermore, if you think that SA's image in the US is bad now, think of the consequences if they should attempt such a move and fail--if nuclear materials were discovered by Mossad or the CIA en route to SA. That would be *bad* for them, unequivocally. There's also the Israeli angle. America may not be in a position to launch a preemptive strike to halt Saudi acquisition of nuclear weapons, but the IDF is an altogether different matter; indeed, they might feel compelled to try even if they were *not* in a good position to launch such an attack, because the matter is of such grave importance to them. They've obviously shown a willingness to strike within the borders of other nations if they believe their national security to be in jeopardy. It's hard to imagine that they would not perceive a nuclear Saudi Arabia to be such a threat. Yes, Saudi Arabia would love to go nuclear. If North Korea were to build a bomb and attempt to sell it, it wouldn't surprise me if some clandestine arm of the Saudi government were one of the bidders (both to acquire a weapon and prevent any anti-royalist factions, which are equally unscrupulous and quite wealthy, from acquiring one). But it's unlikely that they can build one indigenously, and given the calculating and risk-averse nature of the regime, it's unlikely that they would try to assemble a clandestine program using smuggled parts because of the risk of discovery and the likely consequences of such discovery. --Phoenix Rising
 
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Ex-pat2    RE:It does make some sense on their part...   10/6/2003 11:45:42 AM
I do, I honestly do, try to read through most of the pseudo-intellectual wrappings on many of the posts on this forum in order to get the jest of what cognitive point the poster is trying make. In this case, are we all suppose to "assumme" the problem is Saudi Arabia would even contemplate building a nuke from scratch? Jeeze, they have bought and paid for any nukes they may want many times over - the questions are, does the Saud family want the responsibility / will Pakistan give up a few "already ripe" nukes for all the money Saudi Arabia has pumped into their country - and even their nuclear program? I doubt the House of Saud needs the headache - nukes do no good for a corrupt regime collapsing from within. And right now I doubt the Army General heading up Pakistan would release one (needs all he has as a deterrent to India). However, what if the Islamic radicals in Pakistan ever get the upper hand over the army generals, and the also Wahabbis get another horse to ride in Saudi Arabia other than the Sauds? Either of those scenarios may have been a big if, BEFORE 9/11, but now it should be a possibility to address - rather than assuming Saudi Arabia could be thwarted (their own ineptitude or the all-wise-and-knowing-CIA-who-failed-to-see-9/11, notwitstanding) in any atttempt to "home cook" it's own nuclear program. Hell, the Sauds can't even pump their own oil - it still has to import the technology and technicians to do even that.
 
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bsl    RE:It does make some sense on their part...   10/6/2003 10:23:57 PM
1) The connection of a Saudi nuclear program to an Iranian one is shrewd. I have no idea if it's true. I repeat, let's all take a breath and ask of the initial reports are true. But, if Iran ever *does* get a working bomb, then there will certainly be pressure from inside Arabia to acquire one, based on Sunni-Shi'a rivalry, if nothing else. 2)Countries rarely make important decisions on their own policies based on how what they do will seem to other countries. If the Saudis come to feel that a nuclear capability is essential to them, fear of the reaction of the American public will probably not stop them from trying to get it.
 
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