| SAUDIS GET DIRECT WITH ASSAD
Bashar Assad must feel as though he's auditioning for a remake of The Lonely Guy this week, as his international political support has crumbled in a flash. The Egyptians earlier today alluded to Saudi expectations for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, and now the Saudis have spoken for themselves (via Instapundit):
Saudi officials told Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday that he must fully withdraw troops from Lebanon and begin soon or face strains in Saudi-Syrian ties. Assad promised only to study the idea of a partial withdrawal by later this month.
The kingdom took a tough line as Assad met with the Saudi leader, Crown Prince Abdullah, and other officials in Riyadh. So far, Damascus has resisted Arab pressure for a quick pullout from Lebanon.
Saudi officials told Assad the kingdom insists on the full withdrawal of all Syrian military and intelligence forces from Lebanon and wants it to start "soon," according to a Saudi official who spoke by telephone from Riyadh.
The Saudis probably never had much love for the Assad regimes anyway, as their socialist and mainly secular military dictatorship doesn't appeal to the traditional notion of Islamic monarchy favored by the House of Saud. Nonetheless, this demand has not been heard in the past from Riyadh, and the Saudis have never been all that keen on supporting native democratic reforms, for good reason; successes -- as we see now -- tend to provide momentum in other countries for the same purposes.
The Saudis don't want to see a native Syrian popular revolt for democratization, as having one in Iraq provides enough destabilization for their taste. They want Assad out of Lebanon in order to localize the phenomenon to Lebanon and keep it far away from Saudi Arabian borders. They also want Assad's meddling and his sponsorship of terrorism to stop providing the West a casus belli.
It hardly matters to Assad, though, what the Saudis want. Their blunt demand to retreat from Syria only piles the pressure on Damascus, and if enough of it builds up, Assad may have to flee for his life as Syrian power brokers rethink their support for his regime.
ARABS TELL SYRIA TO GET OUT OF LEBANON
In another signal that exasperation with the Assad regime may run closer to Damascus than Assad would prefer, members of the Arab League have joined the chorus telling Syria to get out of Lebanon at the earliest possible moment:
Arab leaders launched a flurry of diplomatic activity Thursday, including a trip by Syrian President Bashar Assad to Saudi Arabia, as they sought to control a political storm over Syria's role in neighboring Lebanon. ...
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said Wednesday night after meeting with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Saud al-Faisal, that they had discussed how to "find a mechanism to implement" last year's U.N. Security Council resolution that called for all foreign forces to leave Lebanon.
"Egypt is encouraging Syria to settle the situation surrounding Lebanon as soon possible," Aboul Gheit said.
The League does not plan on putting the Cedar Revolution on its foreign-miniter agenda for this conference, and neither Syria's nor Lebanon's foreign ministers have been invited to attend. Still, having Eqypt and Saudi Arabia (indirectly) tell Assad that his time has run out has to come as a shock, and not just to Assad. Hosni Mubarak last week suddenly committed Egypt to multiparty elections for the first time in decades, a move that has received plenty of skepticism. This statement on behalf of the pro-democracy activists indicate Mubarak might be serious about leaving a legacy of freedom in the Middle East. Having Saudi Arabia join Egypt in demanding a withdrawal from Lebanon, even indirectly, is worse for Assad: even committed dictatorships don't support his expansionism any longer.
The calls from two Arab nations opposing Assad's policies amount to an amazing vote of no-confidence in the former optometrist, who may have some problems seeing the writing on the wall. His political opponents in Damascus, and perhaps even some of his followers, may have clearer political vision. If Assad can't get in front of this wave of democratization and liberalization in Southwest Asia to take ownership of it, as Mubarak obviously intends to do, then Assad's days are numbered -- and in Syria, that could well be literally.
RUSSIA TELLS SYRIA TO LEAVE LEBANON
Bashar Assad's hope of holding onto some international political cover for his continued operation in Lebanon took a body blow this morning, as his normally reliable trading partner Russia told him that Syria should leave Lebanon as soon as possible:
Russia has increased the pressure on its ally Syria by joining calls for Damascus to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said: "Syria should withdraw from Lebanon, but we all have to make sure that this withdrawal does not violate the ve |
