Oh my God, from SM's keyboard to Yahweh's eyes! I certainly hope the Syrian Secret Police are reading this and passing it on to Assad; any overt attack by Syria on Jordan would be the Assad regime's death sentence. All the Alawites would have to pack up and go back to goat herding, or whatever it is they did before taking over Syria. In other words, it couldn't happen soon enough for my liking! Displacedjim

Death sentence? Carried out by who? The Arab street is already on the bandwagon. The 3 stooges, Abdullah, Abdullah, and Hosenee, got nowhere to turn. A simple 45 mile thunder run from Syria to Amman is all that’s needed to break Jordan. Let the Pals hang Abdullah in downtown Amman. There won’t be any Syrians in Jordan by the time anyone realizes what just happened. Just the mother of all forest fires ‘ablazin that someone(Israel?) needs to try to put out. East Palestine and a bunch of mad hatter Jordanian Wahabi’s, each freed to face their respective enemies to the east and west. Not discrete enuff? Assassination via spec ops, Sirhan sirhan part deux, Zarqawi’s grandma lobs an IED, whatever… pick your poison, but Abdullah the boy goat doesn’t make it out of July. Jordan and Saudi are the soft bellies of the US and Israel’s strategic positions in the Middle East. It’s about time someone bigger than Al-Q took a knife to one.

"Carried out by who?" -- SM The USAF, USN, USA, and USMC. Jordan is perhaps our best Arab ally. I find it just about impossible to believe we'd let an overt Syrian invasion of Jordan go unanswered, and (considering all we're waiting for is a good excuse to do it) the answer would be to destroy Assad and the Syrian regime. Displacedjim

Jordan going under might draw in Turkey and France, each looking for a political stake in controlling this region. If Saudi goes under it'll be a race for the EU and the US to secure green zones in the oil areas and keep out the tribes. Kuwait and Dubai would also be interested in keeping this area secure and possibly would like it under their control. Thus, Syria would end up occupied by most of NATO and Iran would face most of the West directly across the Persian Gulf.

1) The Jordanian military is very competent and would run rings around the Syrians 2) There is enough US military power in Iraq to throw a monkey wrench in any Syrian invasion of jordan

"Carried out by who?" -- SM The USAF, USN, USA, and USMC. Jordan is perhaps our best Arab ally. I find it just about impossible to believe we'd let an overt Syrian invasion of Jordan go unanswered, and (considering all we're waiting for is a good excuse to do it) the answer would be to destroy Assad and the Syrian regime. Displacedjim Oh, I'll give you 2 of those 4. The USAF and USN have not been busy and are itching to go. And given that Hezbolah is probably going to win this fight, I'd agree that Syria oughtta be cautious, lest they miscalculate on the response they'd get. But if Israel somehow manages to tip the balance and push on towards a rout, then Syria has nothing to lose at that point. Their only hope is to open a new front. And the disastrous result(for the US/Israel) of eliminating the Hashemite dynasty would be undeniable. What do you do about 3+ million Palestinians declaring their newly independent state of E. Palestine? Much the same dire strait that Turkey views the new Kurdistan as. And then there's the remaining few hundred thousand fanatical Wahabi/Salafist native Jordanians suddenly freed to implement Al Queda of Jordan on the Iraqi/Saudi border. So Syria needs to keep this move in their back pocket and be ready to pull it out should the battle of Lebanon turn against Hezbollah.

1) The Jordanian military is very competent and would run rings around the Syrians ---Nonsense. The majority of the Jordanian military is PALESTINIAN and under constant suspicion by the Jordanian officer class. They would bolt for the syrian side at first chance for Palestinian independence. 2) There is enough US military power in Iraq to throw a monkey wrench in any Syrian invasion of jordan --Nobody's going to stop a 45 mile OOTB sprint to Amman. And definitely not going to stop a paratrooper drop into Amman. The closest US forces are 350 miles to the east. All Syria needs is to identify a Palestinian group in Jordan ready to accept independence upon the elimination of Abdullah.

There's not a snowball's chance of Syria mounting an unobserved OOTB-anything. Between our ISR and Israel's, we have them under constant observation. And then there's the whole idea of Syria being capable of mounting an OOTB invasion of sufficient strength to take out Jordan's military. Syrian paratroopers? You're dreaming. God, I hope they try, though. Right about now I really would like to be recalled again. Displacedjim

There's not a snowball's chance of Syria mounting an unobserved OOTB-anything. Between our ISR and Israel's, we have them under constant observation. And then there's the whole idea of Syria being capable of mounting an OOTB invasion of sufficient strength to take out Jordan's military. Syrian paratroopers? You're dreaming. God, I hope they try, though. Right about now I really would like to be recalled again. Displacedjim -- Right. The same constant observation that gave the IDF the heads up on the buzzsaw they were walking into in Lebanon? Just set off a few bombs on the border inside Syria and send down a force to "investigate" the unrest caused by "unknown Islamists" and voila you got a force down on the Jordanian border for routine reasons. And there you go with that Jordanian military myth again. I'm wondering where the sudden confidence in the Jordanian scrubs is coming from. The non-Palestinian components that didn't bolt over to the Syrians would display all the capability of Kuwait circa 1990. And as for paratroopers, any reason to believe this unit or the capability doesn't exist anymore? "In the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the elite Syrian 82nd Paratroop Regiment seized the mountain top from the small contingent of Israeli defenders." http://www.syllicom.com/SG.htm

-- Right. The same constant observation that gave the IDF the heads up on the buzzsaw they were walking into in Lebanon? Just set off a few bombs on the border inside Syria and send down a force to "investigate" the unrest caused by "unknown Islamists" and voila you got a force down on the Jordanian border for routine reasons. And there you go with that Jordanian military myth again. I'm wondering where the sudden confidence in the Jordanian scrubs is coming from. The non-Palestinian components that didn't bolt over to the Syrians would display all the capability of Kuwait circa 1990. And as for paratroopers, any reason to believe this unit or the capability doesn't exist anymore? "In the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the elite Syrian 82nd Paratroop Regiment seized the mountain top from the small contingent of Israeli defenders." http://www.syllicom.com/SG.htm ---- Another nice try. You think the Israelis didn't know the Hizballah was there and was getting rockets from Iran via Syria and firing them at Israel from Lebanon? Anyway, it's apples and oranges. I'm talking about indications and warning, not necessarily where absolutely everything is at all times. Although, typically we do know how many aircraft they fly each day, when they move a tank company out of garrison, when they test launch a ballistic missile, etc., etc., etc. It doesn't matter if it's for "routine" reasons or not, we'd see them doing it. Once they start, or even before, we'd probably tell the Jordanians they're coming. Regardless of what we tell anyone and regardless of how successful Syria is, we'd be coming down on them for attacking Jordan. It's the perfect excuse to do what the Administration seems to clearly be planning to do if the opportunity presents itself. I don't have sudden confidence in Jordan; I've always had confidence in Jordan as being competent--leastwise as competent as any Arab military can be. I do not debate whether Syria could conquer Jordan or overthrow the Jordanian government. I only maintain that we would stomp them for trying/doing it. I don't follow Syrian Army OB so I do not know whether they still have any unit designated as being paratroops. However, even if that 1973 battle included a combat jump at all, I can't recall ever reading anything about any large-scale Syrian jump training lately. I'm sure they could try some sort of air assault. That would be quite amusing in the face of Jordanian and even U.S. air defense. Displacedjim