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Subject: Russian Akula Class
DarthAmerica    7/30/2008 6:10:58 AM
I'll keep it short. Why all the hype? Is the boat as good as the blogs, websites and pundits suggest? Considering today's threat environment. How serious do the Navies of the world need to take the Akula? Are the Russians getting enough use out of them to maintain proficiency? I understand that even a WW II Sub firing unguided torpedoes can be dangerous if used appropriately. The question is more of an issue of end to end system efficiency and ability to keep the Russian SSN fleet credible. In otherwords, could Russia wake up tomorrow and decide to send a pair or two of these boats to patrol the U.S. east coast, Med or other strategic waterway, support and maintain persistent presence? If yes, how effective and survivable would the boats be? Any info, suggested reading, RUMINT or reasoned opinions appreciate in order to help this land lover get a grasp on the finer points of the silent service. -DA
 
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RockyMTNClimber    From Global Security dot org...   7/30/2008 2:50:20 PM

As of January 2003, Janes thought that 9 Akula were thought to be operational, and Periscope agreed as of August 2003. COnfusingly, naval-technology.com SSN AKULA CLASS (TYPE 971) profile reports that "The Russian Navy has 14 Bars class Project 971 submarines" and then the sidebar reports "The Russian Navy has 16 Bars class Project 971 submarines" though no as-off date is claimed for either number.

As of 2007 the International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that there were two Akula II and 8 Akula I in service, with no additional units reported "in reserve". As of 2007 there were probably a total of eleven Akula I submarines in service, with a few of these withdrawn for maintenance and repair at any given time [at least two were in maintenance in 2007], along with two Akula II [of which no others are available for maintenance float]. At least two more units [and possibly as many as five] remained under construction, though as of 2007 there was no indication that their completion was contemplated for Russian service.

The active submarines of this class are in restricted service to conserve their remaining reactor core lives. Assuming the nominal 30 year service life of their American counterparts, the oldest Akula I submarines might be withdrawn from service by around 2015, with all but the Gepard Akula II being withdrawn from service by 2025. The restricted service of these boats might easily extend their useful lives to 35 years, suggesting a phase-out in the 2020-2030.

It is my understanding that the Akula is approximately a Los Angeles Class Flight II equivalent ship (is that a correct assessment?). With only 8 or 9 boats active is it best to view it as the key threat all by itself? Should we look at it as a cog in the system, not the system itself? The assessment that they are not operating at any high level tempo (something our intelligence services can track) tells US what about Russia's ability to surge these boats effectively?
 
I have no doubt that used in concert with other advanced types of SSKs & older SSNs the Russians can wreak havoc but that would require them telegraphing their intentions through significant training, maintenance, and upgrades that would cause a direct response from US and NATO before the Bear was ready (unless we had leadership  that chose to ignore the changes...).
 
I live on a mountain though, what the hell do I know?
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
 
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DarthAmerica       7/30/2008 9:06:22 PM
Rocky,
 
What I had in mind was something like this.  If today,a crisis broke out between "The West" and the Russians,  would they be able to send one of these submarines to Cuba for instance. Once there, remain there for 60-120 days clandestinely with a reliable command control and communications link back to Moscow. Also, if so ordered, would it be able to conduct offensive operations against the United States East Coast, Gulf Coast, Guantanamo Bay or against Western warships anywhere in the world independently. While doing so, how survivable would be against Western navies?
 
In essence, I'm asking if this type of summary is capable of projecting power globally are the same kinds of persistence, survivability, flexibility and firepower of Western equivalents?
 
-DA

 
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