Who's up for a spoiling attack on Russia

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Subject: Who's up for a spoiling attack on Russia
PPR 3/23/2014 1:54:37 PM

It now looks inevitable that Russia will sooner or later invade Ukraine and that Ukraine can expect little or no help from anyone. Since Russia has already invaded and they are technically at war. Ukraine's military is under-trained, under funded, and uses mostly obsolete Soviet-era equipment. A hopeless cause. Or is it? Russia is an export-based economy, with 70% of its exports oil & natural gas. Almost 100% of these energy exports go to Europe (thus Europe's reluctance to do anything of substance). About 50-60% of these exports go through (You guessed it) Ukrainian pipelines. By destroying these pipelines, Ukraine could deprive Russia of nearly $200 billion dollars worth of income or about 10% of their economy. Next step: a spoiling attack into Russia. History has shown us that in modern war, the first strike usually decides who will win. Granted, Russia holds all the cards militarily speaking and stands to win by superior numbers/training/resources, but here are the reasons for a first strike: 1) Doctrine: the Ukrainian military was designed around old Soviet doctrine, which is designed for offensive action. 2) Surprise: The element of surprise has always been the best way to maximize your military force. 3) Initiative: you deny Putin the ability to choose what happen next. 4) Make the fight in Russian territory so that Russian infrastructure is destroyed. Putin has succeeded because no one was willing to act against him for a variety of reasons and he never had to pay a price for anything. The above course of action forces Russia to pay a steep price from which they would not recover for years (and this does not include they losses of military equipment). Even if the incursion is repelled, the Russian would be in no condition for an offensive operation. Putin would lose his golden-boy image in the eyes of the Russian people. And if the Russian economy is crippled in the long run, so is the Russian military. Besides, hasn't that always been the best way to deal with a bully? You give him a bloody nose

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WarNerd 3/24/2014 6:13:48 AM

I see, the old cut of your nose to spite your face ploy. It will give you a warm feeling for a few moments, but so does peeing in your pants in public, with similar effect, everyone pretends they don’t know you. Then Russia will just smash the Ukraine flat. Your forces won’t get far enough or do enough damage to offset the popularity boost Putin gets from defeating ‘the treacherous Ukrainians’ and returning the Ukraine to Mother Russia.

Then there are the pipelines under the Baltic Sea, which were designed to allow Russia to bypass Ukraine. 50% to 60% goes through the Ukraine now, but the impact on deliveries from destroying the pipelines would be less than 20% after a couple of weeks

So, better tactics would be to talk to people.

1. Poland and the Baltic states are members, and a worried about the Russian move as you are. The Baltic States want NATO troops, especially from the US, stationed in them as sort of a tripwire. Poland just announced, since the Crimea was invaded, that they short listing the competitors and skipping the first round of bidding for their ABM system

2. Talk to Germany. Merkel is feeling especially betrayed by Putin. Germany has 8GW of nuclear power plants the government shutdown, and last week their equivalent of the Supreme Court ruled that it was illegal. Law suits are going forward to the tune of several billions of dollars per year of lost profits. Reactivating them for a couple years while going through the steps to shut them down legally could displace up to 20% of the gas EU demand within a year.

3. Talk to the EU about maximizing their importing of LNG to minimize risk from Russia, that will cut gas imports from Russia another 20%.

4. Talk to project investors about leaving Russia -- Probably a waste of time, most have given up and left already because of the lack of rule of law and corruption.

5. Take steps to limit vulnerability. The Ukraine has large coal reserves, use them. Create partnerships with the EU for development. In particular get the EU to provide a legal team to oversee an overhaul of Ukrainian law to avoid the mistakes Russia is making.

6. (Finally) You have a Soviet style army, it stinks. It has to be completely rebuilt and you should concentrate on training over hardware. Hardware you can get in a couple of months, training takes years. Concentrate on building NCOs who can train the rest. Poland is just finishing a big new training area, see if they are willing to help.

7. Remember - Revenge is a dish best served cold. The Russian economy is setting up for another hard fall. When it does the Crimea will be caught up in it, wait for the pain to peak, and pull the Russian’s trick in reverse. Just make sure you have an ABM system in place, first.

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CJH 3/30/2014 2:18:10 PM

WarNerd -

I you put these points to Putin what comeback could you expect from him? Has Putin already factored in the possibility that we will pursues some or all of these courses?

Can the Russians present the West with a fait accompli of an absorbed Ukraine in advance of these courses having been completed?

What options would we have for helping Ukraine after the Russians have it should they succeed in taking it over?

In other words, will the Russians be able to operate inside of the West's response envelope? Will the West be like the French in May 1940? Will all of our responses prove to be too little and too late?

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CJH 3/30/2014 2:19:23 PM

WarNerd - If you put these points to Putin, what comeback could you expect from him? Has Putin already factored in the possibility that we will pursue some or all of these courses? Can the Russians present the West with a fait accompli of an absorbed Ukraine in advance of these courses having been completed? What options would we have for helping Ukraine after the Russians have it should they succeed in taking it over? In other words, will the Russians be able to operate inside of the West's response envelope? Will the West be like the French in May 1940? Will all of our responses prove to be too little and too late?

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CJH 3/30/2014 2:26:13 PM

The Russians have probably planned thoroughly for this contingency but could Kaliningrad (Koernigsburg East Prussia) be vulnerable to a spoiling attack?

Does not Poland have a claim to this territory? And it was German territory that became Russian only by military conquest.

If I were the President, I would be asking what are the risks concerned with seizing this territory if necessary. The Russians can't claim this as part of their traditional empire.

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Reactive 3/30/2014 3:49:11 PM

Warnerd's response is spot-on imo.

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WarNerd 3/30/2014 11:33:04 PM

You don’t put those points to Putin, you just do them and let him deal with the fallout. None of those points are an attack on Russia, despite the bombast they will generate from that direction. All they take is the political will to make the decisions. It should be noted, that as NATO members, if the Baltic States are invaded without an overwhelming NATO response that will be the end of NATO.

Lets look at these actions:

1) Send some military teams to the Baltic states to help training their troops to western standards -- Why not? Poles fast tracking their missile defense? Give it a green light at the State Department and some export credits -- nothing new. There is nothing to discuss with Putin.

2), 3), & 5) Russia is using their gas exports as a political weapon to exert pressure on other countries, and with the invasion of the Crimea proves that they do not respect contracts (a treaty or agreement is a social contract), so Europe needs to look elsewhere for reliable sources of energy. There is nothing to discuss with Putin here, his words have been proven of no value.

4) Already happened, new foreign investment in Russia is almost nonexistent due to lack of the rule of law. The Ukraine has the same problem, if you can reform and eliminate it the Ukraine will outgrow Russia.

6) Russia just handed you your hat. Forget about any counterstrikes, that just provides them with a excuse to use whatever means they want (and that might include nukes in defense of the Motherland if you look successful) to conquer the rest of the Ukraine. The Ukraine can never hope to take on all of Russia. Instead concentrate on building a defensive army so that when Russia does try for the rest all they get is mauled.

Two other items if didn’t mention. Finland and Sweden need to have NATO memberships fast tracked. Finland feels they may be next on the list, along with the Baltic states. Sweden is needed to give NATO complete control of the Baltic Sea approaches. This would render much of the value of Finland and the Baltic states worthless to Russia and the major port of Saint Petersburg / Leningrad (20% of their foreign trade) at risk of being cut off, as well as the flow of iron ore from Sweden.

The other is for the NATO nations to reverse their builddown. Of all the things here, that may be both the least likely and the most important.

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PPR WarNerd 4/4/2014 5:28:01 PM

The big problems I see with your courses of action are:

1) they rely on other countries to do things they don't want to do.

2) They would take years to have any impact, while the threat of a Russian invasion is more immediate.

Although it now seems Russia is taking a wait-and-see approach, the threat of invasion continues to exist. Which is why I proposed the above scenario. It was more a question of: how does Ukraine handle Russia while out-manned, outgunned, and without any allies willing to fight for Ukraine?

There's no question that Ukraine is in a bad situation and doesn't have a lot of good options. The last example in history of a spoiling attack was the Six-Day war in 1967. Granted, the Ukrainian military is nowhere near the quality of the IDF. I suggested it as a way to maximize Ukraine's position. Also, bear in mind that the Russian military isn't what it used to be.

And absolutely no one would expect it.

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WarNerd 4/5/2014 2:01:29 AM

The big problems I see with your courses of action are:

According to the news reports: Suggestion 1 will be discussed at a NATO meeting tomorrow, assuming they don’t decide to send reinforcements in.

Planning for 2 through 4 are already underway. Investment in Russia has already collapsed, even before the Ukraine, so that’s a done deal. Germany and Poland have committed to more LNG. Re-opening the German nukes are a bit iffy, but the odds are looking up.

5 is looking less likely, unless the government of the Ukraine can get its act together.

And absolutely no one would expect it.

Suggestion 6 now is the opposite of your plan. If the Ukraine attacks troops on Russian soil absolutely no one in NATO will back them up. NATO command has stated that Russia can take all of the Ukraine in less than a week, all they need is an excuse.

It is also clear that as poor shape as the Russian troops are in, Ukrainian troops are worse.

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PPR You're forgetting 4/12/2014 11:16:18 AM

Russia already invaded Ukraine (Remember Crimea). Anything Ukraine does from this point legally falls under self-defense. And my understanding is the UN is about to release a report that the recent Crimean vote to join Russia was rigged. Anyone shocked? And with all the mayhem Russia is stirring up in eastern Ukraine, it can't be too long before Russian tanks start to roll. Clearly NATO and EU have decided to go with sanctions. Predictably that doesn't seem to be having any impact on Russia.

So what do you do if you are Ukraine? Russia is moving forward. NATO's moving in slow motion. And the EU is passing sanctions so targeted that almost nobody feels them.

And did you see those recent satellite photos of Russia tanks and jets lined up in nice, neat rows? A pretty tempting target if you ask me. That's nearly a $1 billion of military hardware you could destroy in one strike.

I admit, Ukraine doesn't have much to work with. One thing they do have: plenty of left-over Russian tanks. Might as well make the most of what you have.

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CJH 4/12/2014 11:49:49 PM

One wonders about Western media involvement in what's going on in Ukraine and what has gone on in Crimea.

One wonders what would happen if Putin's military and special ops people (or "pro-Russians") were caught in a Tiananmen-like confrontation with Ukrainian demonstrators with an active western media present.

What's the story on the media? Where are the human rights celebs? Where's the American Left?

Also, what are the similarities and dissimilarities between Crimea in 2014 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Hungary in 1956?

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