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Subject: Is There a Real Threat Here?
CJH    8/6/2014 8:35:14 PM

"U.S. and NATO officials say there are now about 20,000 Russian troops massed just east of Ukraine’s border. The U.S. also says Russia continues to train and equip separatists battling Ukraine’s government."

"Among the scenarios that worry some in NATO is Putin potentially sending Russian troops into eastern Ukraine in the guise of a “peacekeeping” force. That concern has deepened as the Russian-supported separatists appear to lose the initiative against Ukrainian government forces.

Hagel also said that Russia’s provocative actions are forcing the U.S. and its allies to take a close look at how NATO is structured and prepared for such military crises and other challenges of the future."

Could Putin be planning to use Russian military force to take control of events in eastern Ukraine?

If we get NATO to engage in some security response to an invasion of Ukraine by Russia will Western Europe follow our lead or will we cause a split?

Would Western Europe fight to maintain an independently sovereign Ukraine?

 
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CJH    Here's The Article I'm Referring To   8/6/2014 8:38:04 PM
 
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PPR    The Threat   8/15/2014 7:14:14 PM
Putin has openly stated that his strategic goal is to rebuild the Soviet empire.  This would include NATO countries that the US is obligated by treaty to defend (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia). There are also countries that would like to enter NATO but have not done so because of Russian interference (Georgia, Ukraine).  Historically aggressor nations tend to push until they get pushed back.  So if Russia had succeeded in Ukraine, the small Baltic states are the next logical targets.  They all have tiny militaries with tiny budgets and significant ethnic Russian populations.  If they were invaded by Russia, it would be over quickly without NATO intervention. 
 
Then consider the wider Soviet Empire:  East Germany, Cuba, Poland, Czechoslovakia (Now the Czech and Slovak Republics).  Granted, some of these seem implausible, but bear in mind they are goals. (He doesn't just want to rebuild the Soviet Union, he wants to rebuild the Soviet Empire.)  Putin has been a patient, capable opportunist--taking what he can get.  He's taken Chechnya, Crimea and parts of Georgia.  He trying to rebuild ties with former satellites like Syria, Iraq, and Cuba.
 
Russia may be a fraction of the threat posed by the old Soviet Union, but it is a significant, aggressive, and growing threat.
 
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WarNerd       8/16/2014 3:45:02 AM
An actual invasion of the western Ukraine would almost certainly move Europe back to a Cold War posture.  An invasion of the eastern Ukraine could also is strenuously opposed, not the nearly bloodless occupation of the Crimea.  Putin wants to avoid that at all costs, especially Germany which was the boogieman in Soviet propaganda.
 
The real question is how long can Putin keep up the campaign in east Ukraine before the economic pain bites too deep.  The Russian economy is already in a recession, and economists are starting to use the word depression in their predictions.  Then there is the ban on western produce Putin just put in place that is sure to bite the Russian population more than the west.
 
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CJH       8/23/2014 1:25:42 PM

An observation is that Western European nations' population levels are in decline. Are Central Europe nation populations (Poland, etc) declining also? Would inclusion of the former Warsaw Pact NATO nations in a Russian Empire help the Kremlin? 

Then the there is China. Does Putin anticipate the loss to China by Russia of Far East territories and therefore needs Ukraine, etc to compensate?
 
 The "White" population (among others perhaps) in the US is declining and is missing something upward towards 55 million due to abortion. I suppose abortion/the sexual revolution is why illegal immigration is so important to the political futures of some in the US. Immigration is the controversy it is because of abortion and therefore of the sexual revolution. We probably would have no problem filling jobs had we 40-50 million native born. Sin has consequences for nations as well as for individuals.
 
Is it a quirk of the Russian character that Russia can't bring its institutions up to date, build up its population and attain dominance through, abundant natural resources, a large population and a highly refined civil culture? But then Western Europe was backward before the God of the Bible  elevated it to first class status for His glory. So probably Russia can attain true greatness only when He so decrees and not before. Maybe that's the best way to analyse the problem.
 
And then we must be able to answer questions such as - "Why really do we need NATO?" - and - "So what if Russia takes Ukraine? Don't we have enough problems here at home?" Also - "Are we really the same nation that led the Free World?" "Do we want to be?"
 
 
 
 
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CJH       8/23/2014 1:43:28 PM

 
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CJH       8/23/2014 1:51:36 PM

 
This factor may render Europe different from the historical one. The rules may have changed here. 
 
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CJH       8/23/2014 1:53:08 PM
An actual invasion of the western Ukraine would almost certainly move Europe back to a Cold War posture.  An invasion of the eastern Ukraine could also is strenuously opposed, not the nearly bloodless occupation of the Crimea.  Putin wants to avoid that at all costs, especially Germany which was the boogieman in Soviet propaganda.
 
The real question is how long can Putin keep up the campaign in east Ukraine before the economic pain bites too deep.  The Russian economy is already in a recession, and economists are starting to use the word depression in their predictions.  Then there is the ban on western produce Putin just put in place that is sure to bite the Russian population more than the west.
I would caution against relying on historical precedent to predict how Europe would react to such an invasion.
 
I would speculate that  ethnic population decline, Atlantic to the Urals, is the big elephant in the room as it were.
 
Western Europe is concerned with non-European immigrants expending their populations there. Putin's ethnic Russian population is declining.
 
This factor may render Europe different from the historical one. The rules may have changed here. 
 
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CJH       8/23/2014 3:46:28 PM
I'm having Android issues with this board. "An actual invasion of the western Ukraine would almost certainly move Europe back to a Cold War posture. An invasion of the eastern Ukraine could also is strenuously opposed, not the nearly bloodless occupation of the Crimea. Putin wants to avoid that at all costs, especially Germany which was the boogieman in Soviet propaganda. The real question is how long can Putin keep up the campaign in east Ukraine before the economic pain bites too deep. The Russian economy is already in a recession, and economists are starting to use the word depression in their predictions. Then there is the ban on western produce Putin just put in place that is sure to bite the Russian population more than the west." I would caution against relying too much on historical precedent to predict how Europe would react to such an invasion. I would submit for examination that European ethnic population decline, Atlantic to the Urals, is the big elephant in the room as it were. So the ultimate outcome may prove to be something other than what is customarily anticipated. Western Europe is concerned with non-European immigrants expanding their populations there. Putin's ethnic Russian population is declining. What I am aiming at is that bringing in more ethnic Europeans might be a way to offset any increase in Central Asian influence relative to ethnic Russian influence within Russia. Demographics could be the big picture context which begins to make sense of what's going on. I recall watching Burt Wolf on PBS talking about the effect of potato cultivation in Europe and how Germany's population increased due to improved nutrition. I have read earlier about how the potato improved the lot of the French peasants in the 17th and or eighteenth centuries. I have also read about how France's population decline proved a problem in WWI Germany having had a much greater population. The other big story may be that "White" population decline in the US has spawned a mass immigration phenomenon otherwise non-existent. I'm sure those 55 million aborted babies would have made a positive material difference had they survived. This factor may render Europe different from the historical one. The rules may have changed here.
 
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