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Subject: Fighting from off shore IMHO won't work.
Mike From Brielle    9/23/2009 12:46:42 PM
There are two reasons that I think the scaled down approach troop wise /fighting from off-shore plan is wrong for the war in Afghanistan. It’s amoral and it won’t work. The people of Afghanistan were perhaps the key players in the defeat of the Soviet empire and the saving of Western Europe and the west in general. While people in Rome, Berlin, Paris, and to some extent London were trying to place the finishing touches on the pseudo perfection of their welfare states the men, woman , and children of Afghanistan, through no fault of their own, had somehow inextricably lodged themselves between the Soviets and what the Soviets considered their destiny. Afghanistan after enduring an inhuman civilization shattering invasion, occupation, rebellion, triumph and finally a victory betrayed by the neglect/ indifference of the west (Washington) and the subterfuge of the ISI was condemned to a period of twilight war. During this period there was no real peace and no real war just the jockeying of proxies in pursuit of other peoples agenda’s. During this twilight period nothing could be nourished, develop or grow. The Taliban loved the idea of a no growth regressive society. After an extended period of this the Afghans finally regrettably accepted the Taliban and there Al Qaida guests and waited for the next turn of their fortune. As time goes in Afghanistan they didn’t have long to wait; 911 happened. We took the Taliban/ Al Qaida by surprise. They knew Close Air Support (CAS), Soviet CAS that is. Soviet CAS is lucky (particularly at that time) if it can hit the broad side of a grid square, but that’s OK if you fight your wars wholesale and not retail (Kill the whole tribe not just the annoying chief). The Afghans on the other hand are masters of retail war as shown by how they took their country back inch by bloody inch. Our victory after 911 was predicated on the availability of extremely accurate intelligence to guide our extremely accurate bombs (which at the time were the relatively speaking more wholesale 500 and 2000 lbs bombs not the relatively little hellfires we use now). Al Qaida didn’t know what hit’em. My fear is if we attempt to return to the twilight war the Taliban will learn to ratchet down the intelligence assets we have in their area of operations and be able to create for themselves a strategic space (not just a refuge in Pakistan/ which must be eventually attended to) that will allow them to start anew operational and strategic operations. We will have let them get off the floor, bad idea! Our Reconnaissance units and Special Forces teams need a sea of at least indifferent people to swim in just as do the mujahedeen do and in this fight for our share of the water our people will be at a permanent disadvantage if the average Afghan farmer knows that literally at the end of the day (when the Sun goes down) the Taliban will be around to settle scores. Think Pol Pot here, what would you do? Another thing that annoys me is the false dichotomy being raised between counter-insurgency warfare and counter terrorism warfare. They are both completely necessary and completely complimentary in the present situation. Don’t fool yourself it would be my guess within McCrystal’s strategic vision for this campaign there is ample use of both counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. The goal is to force the Taliban/ Al Qaida onto the mutually supporting three horns of CAP, Stingray and Phoenix.
 
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