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Subject: Beware an angry China
DragonReborn    4/8/2008 4:32:15 PM
h!!p://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/08/opinion/edbowring.php Here's a pretty good article on why China should not be goaded too harshly about Tibet and Darfur etc, what does everyone think!? P.s Im no PRC Troll! "Tibetans have a strong case against Beijing. But mixing it in with the Olympics and Darfur is a red rag to a wounded young bull. Nationalism is more often aroused by setbacks than success, so the Tibet problems and the possible threats to a triumphal Olympics are stirring it in China. On the horizon is the possibility that these will combine with high inflation, stagnating exports and trade tensions with the United States to create a perfect nationalistic storm. The Chinese leadership faces a difficult balancing act. As its legitimacy is now based on national achievement, not communist ideology, it must appear in step with popular feeling. Yet stability at home and good relations abroad require keeping nationalist emotions in check. The paranoia about evil foreign designs that thrived under Mao and was discarded by Deng Xiaoping is still close to the surface. Almost all of China is offended that foreigners are so keen to lecture them and to encourage the petty boycotts that could spoil the Olympic party. It genuinely infuriates the Chinese that they are blamed for Darfur while their Western critics occupy Iraq. Beijing is happy to let such nationalist resentments vent in the sometimes violent language of Internet blogs and chat rooms. The anger, in turn, makes it easier for the government to pin the Tibetan problems on foreigners and Tibetan exiles headed by the Dalai Lama, to arrest human-rights advocates and crack down on foreign media. Beijing plays up the foreign threat - much like the U.S. government used the Al Qaeda threat as a justification for invading Iraq. For example, Beijing has raised the specter of Tibetan suicide squads organized by the "Dalai Lama clique" attacking the Olympics. Such acts cannot be ruled out. But a cooler government would quietly strengthen defenses rather than raise the temperature - and raise fears that terrorist outrages might be staged to discredit the Tibetans. Under pressure, officials have fallen back on Cultural Revolution language and lies. The Communist Party secretary in Tibet described the Dalai Lama as a "monster with a human face." Less dramatically, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that the channel for dialogue with the Dalai Lama was open so long as he "abandoned claims for Tibet independence" and used his influence to "stop the violence in Tibet." In fact the Dalai Lama long ago accepted the principle of autonomy within China, so long as it was real autonomy. And he is at odds with many Tibetans who oppose his advocacy of peaceful means. Equally important is the way official Chinese media has depicted the violence in Tibet as attacks on Han Chinese. This predictably arouses the hackles of the Han, who comprise 90 percent of China's population, and who tend to view Tibet as a backwater they improve by their modernizing drive. They see no reason why Tibetans should be unhappy with Han migration and dominance of trade, and they resent that Tibetans do not feel grateful for the money poured in by the government. "The Communist Party is like a parent to the Tibetan people and is always considerate about what the children need," declared the Tibet party secretary. The party, he said, was the "real Buddha" for Tibetans. This racial/cultural aspect not only makes it even more difficult for China to resolve minority issues, it also raises the Han identity issue in a wider, international context. Racial mythology as well as cultural identity run strong, whether vis-à-vis immediate "barbarian" neighbors - be they Japanese, Mongol or Russian - or toward the Westerners who long lorded it over the Middle Kingdom. How will the Chinese react if the Olympics really do become noted more for demonstrations and boycotts by Tibetan-inspired foreigners than for the achievements of China's athletes and organizers? At whom will popular anger then be directed? If the party is spoiled, whether by Tibet or air pollution, the demand for top level scapegoats may be irresistible. Worse still is if this coincides with heightened trade tensions with the United States, which could arise as the U.S. economy enters a recession. If the Chinese come to perceive that the benefits of globalization have peaked, will the leadership retreat from 30 years of Deng-ist engagement? None of this has to happen. But ethnic pride and thwarted ambitions are powerful forces. It is worth recalling that foreign economic pressures, patriotic fervor and rising military power made a once liberal Japan into the expansionist, militarist and hyper-nationalist Japan of the 1930s. Tibetans have a strong case against Beijing. But mixing it in with the Olympics and Darfur is a red rag to a wounded young bull."
 
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YelliChink       4/8/2008 6:24:07 PM
Not just Tibetans are pissed off by commies. There are many more. We'll see how it goes, and it's not just about face to some Chinese who feel the party cheated them.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       4/9/2008 12:31:48 PM
China wasn't goaded until after thousands had died in Tiananmen square.  China does not respect weakness, it expects weakness and demands it and its affairs be handled with suppleness while it steamrolls anyone who stands up to speak out against it.
 
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Photon       4/9/2008 3:21:04 PM
I think the only concrete way of dealing with Chinese chauvinism is the spectre of hundreds of millions of Chinese getting wiped off the map with firestorm of nukes and make sure the Chinese know in uncertain term they will be the one who screw up themselves if they go too far.  Not only they will have the opportunity to experience hell on earth, but also the end of their thousands of years of pathetic civilization.
 
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Softwar    Target the CCP Leadership   4/9/2008 4:41:33 PM

I think the only concrete way of dealing with Chinese chauvinism is the spectre of hundreds of millions of Chinese getting wiped off the map with firestorm of nukes and make sure the Chinese know in uncertain term they will be the one who screw up themselves if they go too far.  Not only they will have the opportunity to experience hell on earth, but also the end of their thousands of years of pathetic civilization.



It's the PLA, CCP and the communist party that you should be aiming at.  They are the responsible element here.  Killing millions of Chinese - the same people who are currently paying the highest price as slaves under the iron boot of the CCP - is the wrong tactic and a waste of effort.  In fact, the CCP leadership would like it very much if we killed a few million innocents and trouble makers for them.
 
The only thing holding the CCP and the party leadership back from doing anything stupid (invade Taiwan) is not the specter of millions of Chinese dead - it is the threat that they personally will be targeted
 
Dictators and totalitarian leaderships don't give a rat's patootie about the masses except when to send them to die or use them up as a cheap labor force.  It is the leadership we should target.  The highly centralized and narrow leader base of a totaltarian state makes it vulnerable to attack - both in the classic warfare sense as well as the non-lethal 21st century style information war. 
 
If you want to kill a snake - do not strike at the body - it will only bite you - you must strike the head.
 
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YelliChink       4/9/2008 5:58:26 PM


Dictators and totalitarian leaderships don't give a rat's patootie about the masses except when to send them to die or use them up as a cheap labor force.  It is the leadership we should target.  The highly centralized and narrow leader base of a totaltarian state makes it vulnerable to attack - both in the classic warfare sense as well as the non-lethal 21st century style information war. 

If you want to kill a snake - do not strike at the body - it will only bite you - you must strike the head.


It is impossible to fight Japanese military dictatorship and Nazis without fighting the whole Japanese and German nation. However, on the other hand, Italians ditched Mussolini and Fascists in the mid way.
There are still hope that Chinese nation can fix the problem. In the meantime, I just cross my fingers hoping that things wouldn't go that bad.
 
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Zhang Fei       4/9/2008 9:49:43 PM
YC: It is impossible to fight Japanese military dictatorship and Nazis without fighting the whole Japanese and German nation.

I would argue that it is impossible to fight any leadership without fighting significant elements of the population. Even in Iraq, arguably a few hundred thousand motivated individuals went to war against a US occupation force bent mainly on restoring order after the defenestration of Saddam. We did not get this kind of problem in postwar Italy, Germany and Japan because most of the young men ready and willing to fight had been killed in battle.

Germany paid the highest price, with over 10% of its population killed in battle and during aerial bombings of its major cities. But each of the major Axis powers lost millions of dead. The idea that decapitation strikes will solve our problems is a myth. Think of China as the Roman empire. To destroy the Roman empire required destroying its military, including its militias and auxiliaries. Because a dead emperor merely meant the accession of yet another emperor to the throne.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       4/9/2008 10:19:38 PM
""Think of China as the Roman empire. To destroy the Roman empire required destroying its military, including its militias and auxiliaries. Because a dead emperor merely meant the accession of yet another emperor to the throne."

With a decapitation strike on the CCP and the PLA senior leadership, regional and local power brokers would fight amongst themselves for dominance ( as has happened throughout China's past, even after Sun Zhong Shan beat the Qing).  An international force consisting of the EU, US, Japan, Russia, India, Oz and SK would then come in and suffocate those fires, seize all of the NBC weapons and begin the permanent deconstruction of China.

 
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commie    Idiots   4/10/2008 7:20:11 AM
Stop daydreaming, just sit down and watch Olympic games.
 
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YelliChink       4/10/2008 11:00:00 AM

Germany paid the highest price, with over 10% of its population killed in battle and during aerial bombings of its major cities. But each of the major Axis powers lost millions of dead. The idea that decapitation strikes will solve our problems is a myth. Think of China as the Roman empire. To destroy the Roman empire required destroying its military, including its militias and auxiliaries. Because a dead emperor merely meant the accession of yet another emperor to the throne.

Wow, DEFENSTRATION. I didn't know there is such a word! Thanks ZF.

On the other hand, Japanese tried to fight Chinese in such a way that they aimed to destroy Nationalist forces. Although the Nationalists lost tremendous number of soldiers, gigantic amount of war material and most of heavy industry, IJA had never depleted Chinese manpower.

Western Roman Empire was destroyed due to leadership problem and continual depletion of gold chest and manpower. Given the fact that most rural population were slaves who grew wheat in the farms, and most citizens lived in big cities unfit for military service, Germanic barbarians simply replaced Roman leadership and install themselves as new masters of the people (and slaves). Post-Roman Western Europe devolved into feudal society not because of customs of the Germanic tribes, but because that is the natural way a slave society transformed under new overlords when the old one crumbles. Hannibal couldn't do so because Romans can lose 100,000 after 100,000 at the time, while Carthage can't even afford to lose naval dominance (which they already lost to Romans at the time of Hannibal).

A significant portion of Chinese population is 10%, and that's about 1/3 of US population. It seems to me that it's the Chinese who can afford to lose 100,000 after 100,000, and they are ruled under a regime which has no regard to do so. I think Photon made his statement based on the realization that it's the best way to deter any commie adventure, while actual war strategy requires such genocidal approach to negate Chinese advantage of manpower.
 
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Softwar       4/10/2008 11:10:38 AM

Stop daydreaming, just sit down and watch Olympic games.


Sorry Commie - I am enjoying watching the CCP squirm as the world protests keep interrupting your recreation of the 1936 Berlin games.  I suspect the fun has only begun - seeing as how the PRC Foreign Ministry told the Olympic committee to butt out today.  In addition, the Aussies told you to keep your Gestopo police protecting the flame on the "bus" instead of acting like the thugs they are - shoving people around inside our free western civilizations - something you guys can't seem to tolerate.
 
I do dream of an ex-CCP and that is not an impossible dream by any means...  either by force or by choice.  Your government - based on the failed design of a German - Karl Marx - is doomed.  If I were you - I'd hustle my yuan out to my Swiss bank account and have a private jet ready to do the same for you - maybe aimed at the DPRK or something similar.
 
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