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Subject: The coming Chinese collapse
Le Zookeeper    8/13/2009 2:21:18 AM
Tricky accounting practices hide the fact that Chinese growth rate is not 8%. With exports down 22% and electricity usage down it makes no sense, plus the average chinese simply doesn't spend that kind of money. The catch is chinese accounting allows to call goods leaving a factory a sale. Hmmm there is gonna be a flood of cheap chinese goods soon.
 
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Hsunder       8/16/2009 3:30:24 PM

Tricky accounting practices hide the fact that Chinese growth rate is not 8%. With exports down 22% and electricity usage down it makes no sense, plus the average chinese simply doesn't spend that kind of money. The catch is chinese accounting allows to call goods leaving a factory a sale. Hmmm there is gonna be a flood of cheap chinese goods soon.

You must have missed the fact that China is now the largest market for most consumer goods. As of August, Chinese consumers have bought more automobiles than americans during the year, and unless the cash for clunkers here makes a big dent, China will also be the largest automobile market in the world for the year.
 
You also missed the fact infrastructure projects in China are still going on at a breakneck speed, which again means lots of consumption.
 
Remember, you guys kept predicting the demise of the Chinese banks, but look whose banks actually collapsed....and no, it ain't the Chinese banks.
 
 
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Le Zookeeper    Agreed   8/16/2009 6:20:58 PM
US/UK banks collapsed first. You win just that you are next. Now you may not finance US/UK banks easily again but in this game we all lose, and it doesn't change the fact that Chinese bought more smaller cars remember these are cheaper cars, growth is breakneck but who is renting? Factories are moving goods but 22% world drop in chinese imports and you are saying the Chinese are buying, Chinese are kings of fuzzy accounting. I have many Chinese friends in California all they buy is a Honda and a big TV, and nobody wants to return. The only thing true is China has more real cash reserves than US and US may print money making that useless. Of course next time China will buy bonds in YUan only not USD. But today we are in the same boat.
 
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Le Zookeeper    china follows usa's steps-copycat finally gets burnt   8/19/2009 9:10:27 AM
ninja loans similar to sub prime but for manufacturers out of luck will cause a china crash of apoclyptic proportions dragging the world into a depression. chinese didn't learn much did they? its ok to copy us tech but the fed reserve and lehman brother? china should have learnt u copy u really stop thinking and then u copy anything- good and bad. oh well.
 
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