| US loses grip on geopolitical position in Tajikistan 19.07.2004
As Tajikistan has strengthened its ties with both Russia and China, the appeal of strategic cooperation with the US appears to be fading.
By Kambiz Arman for EurasiaNet
The US geopolitical position in Tajikistan has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks. Russia appears to have succeeded in achieving a long-held goal of establishing a permanent military base in Tajikistan, while China has bolstered its strategic presence with the opening of a Khorog-Kashgar road link. At the same time, there are signs that Tajik skepticism over strategic cooperation with the US is growing. Immediately following the September 11 terrorist tragedy, the US significantly enhanced its geopolitical profile in Central Asia, establishing military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Though US forces were never stationed in Tajikistan, President Imomali Rahmonov welcomed the rapid expansion of ties with the US, prompting widespread speculation that Dushanbe one day might turn its back on Russia and rely on Washington to be the country’s primary supplier of security assistance. In a stunning turn of events, however, Russia and Tajikistan struck a deal in early June at a summit at the Russian resort of Sochi that preserved Moscow’s economic and political primacy.
Bush’s muddled, contradictory policy
Tajik political experts say a muddled and contradictory policy pursued by the Bush administration played a significant role in pushing Tajik President Imomali Rahmonov back into Russia’s embrace. "US President George W. Bush is not as clever as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in turning the United States into a ‘trusted friend’ of Tajikistan," political analyst Fakhriddin Kholbek wrote in the Ruz-i-Nav newspaper 8 July. "That is why it [the US] is being regarded as an ‘outsider.’" In late June, Russia followed up on its Sochi success by reaching tentative deals concerning responsibility for border control and the establishment of a permanent Russian base. According to a Tajik radio report, Putin is expected to visit Dushanbe in the fall to sign a treaty giving Russia a permanent base in Tajikistan. The pact would formalize an arrangement that has existed since the Soviet collapse, under which Russia, in the form of the 201st Motorized Rifle Brigade, has maintained a military presence in the country. Under the tentative border patrol agreement, Russia stands to transfer in stages full authority for frontier security to Tajik forces. An official at the Tajik State Border Protection Committee, Nuriddin Amirgulov, said four preliminary agreements were signed during bilateral meetings on 29-30 June. Under the agreements, Tajik border troops would assume responsibility for patrolling the eastern Badakhshan region this autumn, according to an 8 July report in the Tajik daily. The transfer is envisioned to be completed by 2006, when Russian border forces would vacate border posts in the Pyanj region, along the Tajik-Afghan border. The final pact on the border control issue could be ready for signing in late August, Tajik border officials said.
Enter China
The announcement of the Tajik-Russian agreements came shortly after China heralded the opening of its first road link between Tajikistan and the Chinese province of Xinjiang. The first bus, carrying 26 passengers, arrived on 27 June in Khorog, the capital of Tajikistan’s Badakhshan Region, after making the treacherous 700-kilometer trip from the Chinese city of Kashgar, through mountainous terrain, in about 24 hours. The bus then continued on to Dushanbe, arriving almost two days later. The road route is expected to promote a significant expansion in trade between Tajikistan and China over the medium- to long-term. At present the route is in poor condition and has no service infrastructure whatsoever, according to a Tajik radio report on 5 July. In addition, winter weather is expected to keep the road route closed from late October until May. Nevertheless, both Tajik and Chinese officials have high hopes that the route will emerge as an important conduit for economic activity. Tajik officials also say that the opening of the new route could create jobs in Badakhshan, which is considered the most impoverished region of Tajikistan, which itself ranks among the world’s poorest countries. For China, the Khorog-Kashgar link represents an attempt to boost the share of Chinese goods in the Central Asian market. Many Tajik political experts note that China is aggressively promoting trade as a way to extend Beijing’s geopolitical influence in the Central Asia. Indeed, some experts say the focus of the new route is not Tajikistan, but Uzbekistan, which is widely viewed in Beijing as Central Asia’s key regional player. Chinese President Hu Jintao held talks with Uzbek leader Islam Karimov in Tashkent in June. The two signed several cooperation agreements to promote trade and increase strategic cooperation.
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