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Subject: Central Asia's Great Base Race
Big Bad Pariah    1/9/2004 8:10:55 AM
Central Asia's Great Base Race By Stephen Blank, Asia Times Anyone examining contemporary security issues in Central Asia and the Caucasus quickly comes to the conclusion that security has become increasingly militarized. This growth of military power, influence and ambition is taking place in many ways, but a key theme is the scramble by major foreign powers for military bases in the strategically vital region. The search for bases preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, but since then the rush for foreign bases has accelerated. Indeed, it has become a focal point of the many international rivalries that now dot these areas. And it appears likely to divide the region into rival proxies for the major military powers. Given the enormous potential for conflict inherent throughout the former Soviet Union, this can only be a dangerous trend. While the forces at these bases may or may not perform combat operations, they are visible tokens of the foreign state's influence, and equally important, support for the host regime. Foreign states seek bases to project their influence as well as military power, and weak host states want them to increase domestic support against challengers and to obtain tangible protection from powerful patrons. Although many new bases are US installations, acquired after September 11, this scramble for military toeholds is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Russia's base in Kyrgyzstan at Kant is officially an air base and the spearhead for the Shanghai Cooperative Organization's (SCO's) rapid reaction forces. But since Russia is not fighting anyone in Central Asia and cannot spare troops to defend this base's perimeter, it looks more like an attempt to show the flag and counter the American presence. It also appears to be an effort to influence Kyrgyzstan's domestic politics, after the US refused in 2002 to lend its support to President Askar Akayev, who was suppressing democratic and opposition movements in his country. The US has a major base at Manas, not far from Kant, which can hold thousands of troops. According to some reports, for every aircraft landing the Americans have to pay US$7,000. In addition, the rent of the base and use of various facilities bring in extra revenues - all of which in another way help perpetuate Akayev's regime. Russia, meanwhile, is bringing pressure to bear to convert its previous military deployments in Tajikistan into a permanent base. What is most interesting here is that the Russo-American struggle for bases is becoming an ever-more open struggle over rival spheres of influence or efforts to deny such to the other side. Russia pressures states to oppose US bases Quite recently, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Georgia, almost certainly due to Russian pressure, announced their opposition to permanent US bases in their territory, once the "war against terrorism" is over. Indeed, Kyrgyzstan's government reversed its earlier stand on bases - that the US could stay as long as necessary. This struggle over bases has grown as the US has embarked on a global restructuring of its basing system. This impending reordering has clearly triggered Moscow's defensive and imperial reflexes. Due to Washington's changed perception of contemporary strategic realities, there is good reason to believe the US is seeking some form of regularized access to, if not permanent basing rights, in at least some of the post-Soviet republics. While the US has not publicly disclosed where it would seek bases, Moscow's alarm is evident in numerous statements by high-ranking officials, including President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. All have clearly opposed any US military presence in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), beyond the existing network of bases and agreements about overflights and logistical access. There is a crucial difference, however, between US and Russian ideas of bases in the region. Though it opposes America's asserted right to bases in the Caucasus or Central Asia at the request of state governments, Russia does not hesitate to declare that its own bases are permanent, nor does it hesitate to impose those bases despite local opposition. Notwithstanding its genuine and vital interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Moscow has refused to vacate its bases in Moldova and Georgia, as stipulated by its participation in its 1999 agreements with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Its intransigence in this regard raises questions about what exactly Moscow hopes to achieve by imposing permanent bases on states when it cannot sustain expeditionary forces of any quality abroad. Russian ambassadors' statements to CIS governments also reveal an imperialist mentality that evidently seeks to perpetuate a closed bloc in the CIS and to abridge host governments' sovereign freedom to make decisions on foreign bases on their own territories. Moscow's amb
 
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