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Subject: 5/25/09 Reports and Claims of North Korean conducting 2nd nuclear weapon test
Carl D.    5/25/2009 12:41:08 AM
Posted for fair use.... http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/world/asia/25nuke.html?ref=global-home May 25, 2009 North Korea Claims to Conduct 2nd Nuclear Test By CHOE SANG-HUN SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea announced on Monday it had successfully conducted its second nuclear test, defying international warnings and drastically raising the stakes in a global effort to get the recalcitrant Communist state to give up its nuclear weapons program. The North’s official news agency, KCNA, said the country had conducted an “underground” nuclear test. The announcement came moments after the South Korean government’s geological sensors had detected an artificially triggered tremor emanating from Kilju, northeast North Korea, said Lee Dong-kwan, spokesman of the office of President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea. The spokesman said “intelligence officials of South Korea and the United States are analyzing the data and closely monitoring the situation.” Word of the nuclear test sent a shudder through Asian financial markets, with Korea’s stock index plunging four percentage points within minutes. North Korea conducted its first nuclear test on Oct. 9, 2006, and it had given some advance notice of its intention to test a device. That initial test also was in the northeast. North Korea recently threatened to conduct a second nuclear test, citing what it called Washington’s “hostilities” against the isolated Communist regime. The test came against a backdrop of heightened tensions between North Korea and the United States, which keeps a heavy military deployment in South Korea. Two American journalists are scheduled to be tried June 4 in North Korea, charged with illegal entry into the North and “hostile acts.” That case in particular has aggravated tensions between Pyongyang and Washington, which were already strained after the North launched a long-range rocket on April 5. After that launching, Washington pressed the United Nations Security Council to tighten sanctions on the North. In retaliation, Pyongyang expelled United Nations nuclear monitors, while threatening to restart a plant that makes weapons-grade plutonium and to conduct a nuclear test. This month, one day after an American diplomat offered new talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, the North said it had become useless to talk further with the United States. “The study of the policy pursued by the Obama administration for the past 100 days since its emergence made it clear that the U.S. hostile policy toward the D.P.R.K. remains unchanged,” the North Korean Foreign Ministry said, using the initials for the country’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. In comments carried by KCNA, the ministry said: “There is nothing to be gained by sitting down together with a party that continues to view us with hostility.” The rebuff came as Stephen W. Bosworth, the American special envoy on North Korea, began a trip to Asia with a fresh offer of dialogue. The North’s vow to “bolster its nuclear deterrent” came just hours before Mr. Bosworth was due to arrive in Seoul.
 
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usajoe1       5/25/2009 2:08:52 AM
Just another stunt by this criminal regime. How many times are we going to play this game. The UN is going to condem the action, South Korea and Japan are going to ask for more sanctions, the US and Europe are going to act like their shocked, and at the end of the day nobody is going to really do anything. Every thing will go back to normal and we will be back to square one when the North pulls another stunt. This is nothing new, the only thing diffrent this time is it appears to be a little more successful test than the last onehttp://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emangry.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" alt="" />
 
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FJV       5/25/2009 12:51:56 PM
Was the bang this time big enough to dispell all doubts that they have a nuclear weapon or is it once again not enough to be sure?
 
 
 
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Carl D.       5/25/2009 1:23:42 PM
The estimate on the test shot yield has been placed at about 20 kt.  I'd say that makes them a member of "the club" in good standing, so to speak.
 
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Carl D.       5/25/2009 1:29:22 PM

Just another stunt by this criminal regime. How many times are we going to play this game. The UN is going to condem the action, South Korea and Japan are going to ask for more sanctions, the US and Europe are going to act like their shocked, and at the end of the day nobody is going to really do anything. Every thing will go back to normal and we will be back to square one when the North pulls another stunt. This is nothing new, the only thing diffrent this time is it appears to be a little more successful test than the last onehttp://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emangry.gif" alt="" align="absmiddle" border="0" />

Problem, just before the NK test shot, it was announced that the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has a committee discussing Japan allowing for it to conduct pre-emptive strikes into foreign territory if Japan was in imminent threat of attack.  

I can only imagine the direction of further deliberation by that committee.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Japan   5/25/2009 2:30:47 PM
Was it a month ago that the NKs sent a ballistic missile over the home islands? First a missile shot then a nuclear blast. What should Japan read from these messages?
 
Japan has a right of self defense just like everyone else.
 
 
 
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eldnah       5/25/2009 2:48:54 PM
Given the level of Japanese technology and the efficacy of their nuclear industry what's the breakout time if Japan decides it must have an operational nuclear weapon of it's own? Four months? I would assume all the preliminary design and simulation work was done years ago and is constantly updated.
 
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lurker       5/25/2009 3:22:15 PM

The estimate on the test shot yield has been placed at about 20 kt.  I'd say that makes them a member of "the club" in good standing, so to speak.


i've heard it being closer to 5-8 kt. If it was at 20 though, that would put them firmly in "the club" alright.
 
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RPL       5/25/2009 9:27:12 PM
I had heard that it would take about 6 months for the Japanese to "make" an operational nuke.
 
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WarNerd       5/26/2009 4:52:20 AM

I had heard that it would take about 6 months for the Japanese to "make" an operational nuke.

Probably the only thing they do not have on hand is a sufficient quantity of high purity fissile material.
But you have to ask -- What would possession of nuclear weapons get for Japan besides outraged neighbors?
 
North Korea lacks suitable targets.  Most of their cities are basically "Potemkin villages" and their industry and military are mostly underground.
 
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eldnah       5/26/2009 9:25:09 AM



I had heard that it would take about 6 months for the Japanese to "make" an operational nuke.




Probably the only thing they do not have on hand is a sufficient quantity of high purity fissile material.


But you have to ask -- What would possession of nuclear weapons get for Japan besides outraged neighbors?

 

North Korea lacks suitable targets.  Most of their cities are basically "Potemkin villages" and their industry and military are mostly underground.



There is still enough DPRK targets above and below ground that would be hostage to a Japanese counter strike and also Japanese nuclear weapons create a bargaining point; the Japanese can easily argue they will let theirs system be dismantled if the DPKR lets theirs be by suitable third parties.
 
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