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Subject: The Collapse of the EU?
PPR    2/16/2010 12:27:26 AM
I've long suspected the EU would break up at the first major economic downturn. With Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy all struggling with debt; the question remains: why should they remain in the EU if it will not bail them out? The EU must struggle with the question: Why should we bail them out when their bad economic decisions will just drag the EU down? So we are at an impass. The easiest way out would be for these countries to withdraw from the EU and start printing their own money--a little inflation to reduce the public debt. So do you think it will happen? What will be the consequences?
 
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FJV       2/16/2010 2:45:27 PM
Nothing I see in Europe that suggests any breakup is likely to happen soon.
 
 
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PlatypusMaximus       2/16/2010 4:23:55 PM
Oh No!...Did you guys vote for Bush too?
 
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PPR    Glide path to doom   2/24/2010 7:49:41 PM
I'm not saying the break-up of the EU will happen all at once or immediately, I do believe the EU is on a glide-path to break-up.  The current economic crisis has clearly not bottomed out.  As austerity measures imposed from outside start to bite in cash-strapped countries like Greece, politicians will start to look at alternatives to the IMF or EU.  Simply put, Greece will have to re-assert sovereignty.  The only way out for politicians will be to print money--lots of it!  They can't do that as long as they use the Euro.
 
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Jimme       2/26/2010 1:40:14 AM
Anyone still think switching from the Dollar to the Euro as the reserve standard is a good idea?
 
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tigertony       2/27/2010 1:20:24 PM
 
  "You have not anchored Germany to Europe; you have anchored Europe to a newly dominant,unified Germany. In the end, my friends, you'll find it will not work".
 
                                                  Margaret  Hilda Thatcher 1995
 
 
     Now I wonder why she would say that?
 
 
 
                                                                       tigertony
 
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tigertony       2/27/2010 1:43:33 PM

Maggie was against German reunification from the start, and prooven greatly wrong.  In this case, we can really say that 20 years after reunification Germany has not turned into an evil powergrabbing machine - unlike what Miss Thatcher predicted.

  "As the EU?s largest economy and main architect of the European Central Bank, Germany is where the proverbial buck stops. Germany has a choice to make."
 
  Well that all depends on what you or her call evil?
 
 
                                                                          tigertony
 
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WarNerd       2/27/2010 7:51:57 PM
NGI
Maggie was against German reunification from the start, and prooven greatly wrong.  In this case, we can really say that 20 years after reunification Germany has not turned into an evil powergrabbing machine - unlike what Miss Thatcher predicted.

That is not what the quote says, but the quote seems perfectly correct about what creating the EU did.
 
The question now is does Germany sacrifice itself to try and save the EU, impossible as that seems, or are their politicians tough enough to put half the states in the EU through the equivalent of Chapter 11 bankruptcy drive home a point and force changes?
 
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french stratege       2/27/2010 9:47:28 PM

Maggie was against German reunification from the start, and prooven greatly wrong.  In this case, we can really say that 20 years after reunification Germany has not turned into an evil powergrabbing machine - unlike what Miss Thatcher predicted.

Let see the future.
Germany is not in hurry to get power like it was a century ago.
Germany learnt to be patient and to use economic pressure instead military force.
However it become more and more clear even in France, that M Thatcher was right on the long term.20 years is nothing.
Germany is playing more and more an independant game even preserving its national weapon industry for the long term, and do not try to cooperate like in the past with France or even UK.
I'm quite sure that today Europe will collapse.More and more people within the french elite are convinced of that.
 
 
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Alexis       2/28/2010 2:42:51 AM
I don't think the risk of Euro monetary union breakup is there yet. It is definitly on the horizon, however.
 
As far as Greece is concerned, it is being pushed willy-nilly to implement a severe austerity program. Painful as it is, such program is the only way to avoid debt default, given that support from other EU nations will be scarce at best.
 
The risk of course is that as the crisis in sovereign debt widens, it would spread to such nations as Spain, Portugal, Ireland, possibly even Italy. Which could create a "reaction mass" possibly leading to these countries defaulting on their public debts, then leaving the monetary union altogether.
 
Given the terms of the Maastricht treaty, given the very strong reluctance to take risks of strong inflation on the part of Germany, I can't see the ECB starting to print out loads of currency the way the US and the UK have done.
Germany, just like other Eurozone nations, has an (unstated) option to get out of the monetary union any time it would choose. If the ECB began "quantitative easing" in any significant fashion, it's difficult to imagine Germany staying in for long: Germans wants first and foremost a strong currency. "Never again" hyperinflation à la Weimar 1923.
 
Choosing the Euro as a reserve currency is indeed imprudent. That being said, it is not nearly as imprudent as choosing the US dollar, whose future value will be impacted first by the large amount of money printing already done, then by the even larger amount of monetary printing necessary to avoid any austerity program.
Greece after all is the only Eurozone nation whose debt situation is almost as bad as the America's:
- Public debt north of 110% of GDP for both these countries (US public debt is the sum of Federal debt at 90% of GDP this year + state and local debt at 20% of GDP)
- Public deficit about 12% of GDP for both Greece and the US, however Greece is beginning to be forced to reduce it quickly, while the US increase their expenses...
- Private sector debt far worse in the US at 150% of GDP than in Greece at about 100% as can be seen here: h**p://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=44998
 
While storing one's liquidity in Euro is more prudent than storing them in US dollar, the really prudent thing to do is IMHO to store them in another currency, namely Element N°79. Though element N°47 is possible too.
 
 
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YelliChink       2/28/2010 3:03:56 PM
 
[quote]

Greece's deputy prime minister injected Nazi-era grievances into the debate over a possible German-led bailout of his country, fueling tensions that could complicate efforts to resolve Athens' credit crisis.

Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos lashed out at Germany for pushing Greece to undertake painful austerity measures, saying the country never paid adequate reparations for the Nazis' World War II invasion and occupation of Greece.

[unquote]
 
It just looks better and better. I don't think France and Germany will be able to bail Italy, Spain, Portugal and several other nations out later this or next year. The whole Euro zone is going to bust anyway. I'm not sure whether it is by design of or a serious setback to the New World Order, but I bet anyone who read this that George Soros will be even more richer at the end of this.
 
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