September 28, 2007:
Information coming out of Iran indicates that the military there is very dismayed at how ineffective new Russian anti-aircraft systems were during the Israeli September 6th air strike on a Syrian weapons development facility near the Iraqi border. Syria and Iran have both bought billions of dollars worth of the latest Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. Apparently the Israelis were able to blind these systems electronically. Syria isn't saying anything, nor are the Israelis, but Iranian officers are complaining openly that they have been had by the Russians. The Iranians bought Russian equipment based on assurances that the gear would detect and shoot down Israeli warplanes.
Over the Summer Russia
delivered the first dozen or so (of 50) Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems to
Syria. It is believed that some of these systems are going to Iran, if only
because Iran is apparently paying for them. Russia made the sale to Syria,
despite $13.4 billion still owned for past purchases. Russia forgave most (73
percent) of the old debt, and is taking some of the balance in goods. In
return, Syria is able to buy $400 million worth of anti-aircraft systems, mainly
the self-propelled Pantsir-S1. This is a mobile system, each vehicle carries
radar, two 30mm cannon and twelve Tunguska missiles. The missiles have a twenty
kilometer range, the radar a 30 kilometer range. The missile can hit targets at
up to 26,000 feet. The 30mm cannon is effective up to 10,000 feet. The vehicle
carrying all this weighs 20 tons and has a crew of three.
By selling to Syria, even
via the use of an enormous discount, Russia gets another foreign customer for
their new anti-aircraft systems. Previously, fifty of these systems had been
sold to the United Arab Emirates. Each foreign sales make it easier to sell
these systems to other foreign customers. But the poor performance in Syria
makes it much more difficult to sell any Russian air defense systems (which
have a spotty track record in any event.)
As a practical matter,
Syria is too poor to ever pay back the forgiven debt, so forgiving the debt
recognizes that reality. However, because Syria has been a client state of Iran
for decades, the assertions that Iran put up the money, and will get many of
the systems, carry a lot of weight. Iran would most likely use these systems to
protect high value targets, like nuclear weapons research facilities. However,
if anyone should get photos of these systems in Iran, there would be quite an
uproar.
The Iranians fear an
Israeli air strike against their nuclear weapons development facilities. It was
thought the new Russian missiles and radars would persuade the Israelis to stay
away. But now the raid on Syria looks like a dress rehearsal for one a little
further east. Since Iranian leaders have openly called for the destruction of
Israel, one can't deny the Israelis a little self-defense. Thus the cries and
whispers in Iranian military headquarters. A lot of this is leaking on to Farsi
language email and message boards. There is much angst and unhappiness.