February 14, 2008:
While Israel is eager to get the new U.S.
F-35 fighter-bomber, they also see that aircraft as the last manned aircraft
they will buy. This is an attitude shared by many aircraft designers, and even many air force
commanders. Partly, this attitude comes from the lead Israel has taken in UAV
development. Although the U.S. got into this field back in the 1950s, Israeli
firms embraced the concept more enthusiastically when they began work in the
1970s. It was the success of Israeli UAVs that finally got U.S. manufacturers
to make their designs practical, reliable and attractive to military users. Operations
in Iraq and Afghanistan has been revolutionized by the presence of thousands of
UAVs, helping everyone from platoon commanders, up to the most senior generals,
fight more effectively.
Israeli UAVs are noted for their
reliability and low operating cost. The Israelis have gotten the per-hour
operating cost of a Predator size UAV down to about a thousand dollars an hour.
That's less than a fifth of what it would cost to have a piloted jet do the
recon work.
The F-35 will be in use for over 20
years, and prototypes of robotic replacements are already flying in the United
States. Israel wants to develop designs, software and control systems for
fighter and bomber UAVs, and then partner with American or European
manufacturers to actually build the pilotless aircraft that will replace the
F-35, sometimes in the 2030s. These will use many of the expensive engine and
electronic components currently found in top-line warplanes, and Israel is too
small to sustain the production of much of this stuff.
The combat USVs would arrive about a
century after the first major revolution in military aircraft design. This was
when the fabric covered bi-planes that dominated World War I, were replaced by
all-metal monoplane designs. Less than a decade later, those revolutionary
looking (and performing) aircraft were replaced by the first jet fighters. The
"first generation" jet fighters were those produced during World War II and
through the late 1940s. The best examples of these are the U.S. F-86 and the
Russian MiG-15. The second generation got going in the early 1950s, and
produced aircraft like the U.S. F-104 and the Russian MiG-21. The third
generation followed within a decade, producing the U.S. F-4 and the Russian
MiG-23. The fourth generation arrived in the 1970s and 80s with the F-15, F-16,
F-18, Russian MiG-29, Su-27 and French
Mirage-2000. The fifth generation includes the F-22, F-35, and whatever the
Russians come up with. The Eurofighter and Rafael are often called Generation
4.5. Russian fifth generation fighter developments were halted when the Soviet
Union disintegrated in 1991. Actually, all development work on new fighters, by
everyone, slowed down in the 1990s. But work on the F-22, F-35, Eurofighter and
Rafael continued, and those aircraft became, in roughly that order, the most
advanced fighter aircraft available today. This fifth generation may come to be
called the "last generation," after they are replaced by the second generation
of pilotless combat aircraft (counting armed Predators and the like as the
first).