September 24, 2007:
American
air power has dominated the skies for over sixty years. That's unique in the
history of airpower, although similar to the two century run the Royal Navy had
in dominating the world's oceans from the 18th century into World War II . At
that point the U.S. Navy grew enormously, while the Royal Navy shrank. The
Royal Navy lost its position because another the Americans came along with more
money, and similar capabilities in operating warships at sea.
America's air superiority also
came first, from sheer numbers. The warplanes of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force
and Marines accounted for the largest air fleet in the world. In addition, the pilots were also the best trained and
equipped. Moreover, like the Royal Navy, American aviators were resourceful and
energetic, and able to quickly recover from mistakes. For example, at the start
of World War II, American warplanes were not as well designed as those used by
Japan and Germany. But within two years, that all turned around. Meanwhile,
American pilots and commanders quickly adapted, and made the most of inferior
aircraft. Same thing happened during the Korean war, when, early on, the
Russian MiG-15 was found to be better than expected. During the Vietnam war,
American tactics were initially inferior, but that soon changed.
When you have periods of long
dominance, your opponents have an incentive to try harder, and be bold with new
technology and tactics. The Royal Navy ran into this during World War I, when
they found German battleships had superior design features. The German use of
submarines was also a shock, and something of a setback. But in both cases, the
British quickly recovered. It's not enough to be the biggest, you also have to
be the fastest in adapting to new situations.
The most dangerous area these
days, for getting caught short, is high tech. U.S. warplanes depend a lot on
stealthiness, and the use of missiles, software and electronic
counter-measures. If the enemy figures out something you are clueless about, or
obtains your secrets, while protecting his own, the opening battles could be
very ugly. In reality, these surprises are damaging, but very rarely result in
a wipeout. But there is more dependence on technological secrets, than at any
time in the past. This is probably why China has announced that its military
strategy seeks to exploit this angle.
Future wars, nevertheless,
will still come down to who has the most stuff, and who is best trained to use
whatever they got. China is beginning to go down that road, obtaining first
rate warplanes, and spending the money to let pilots fly often enough to become
lethal.