April 28, 2024:
Russia is trying to perfect its Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, which is an upgrade of the older Kh-59. Kh-69 was still in development throughout 2023, then in April 2024 six of these missiles, launched from a Russian fighter-bomber, were used to destroy a Ukrainian power plant. Ukrainian air defense systems did not detect the incoming Kh-69s because they were launched from Russian aircraft that were on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and, when the missiles entered Ukraine, they were low to the ground and virtually undetectable by Ukrainian ground radar. It would take an aircraft based ground surveillance radar, like the one carried by the Americans AWACS aircraft, to spot incoming Kh-69s. Ukraine doesn’t have any AWACS but NATO has fourteen of them and the United States has 31. There are dozens of smaller AWACS-type aircraft produced by other countries, such as Sweden, based on twin-engine business jets. NATO or the United States could provide Ukraine with some AWACS but Ukraine would have to supply jet fighters to protect the AWACS against potentially aggressive and possibly effective efforts to shoot them down. The Russians would certainly try, as one of their few AWACS-type aircraft were shot down or damaged by the Ukrainians.
Because a Ukrainian AWACS could detect the Kh-69 Russian cruise missile, the Russians would definitely try to shoot down any AWACS Ukraine might get. Ukraine hasn’t received any but the Russians definitely have more Kh-69 cruise missiles they want to use against Ukrainian targets, even if the Ukrainians figure out how to detect and intercept them using ground radars and Patriot or similar anti-aircraft systems.
The 800 kg Kh-69 is definitely in service, but Russia is finding it difficult to produce more because a Kh-69 requires many electronic components that are not made in Russia and have to be imported from NATO countries. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has had to deal with severe economic sanctions. Russia has to smuggle in these components, which makes production of more Kh-69s possible, but at a low rate of production. Russia would like to have several hundred of these missiles but given the current situation the military receives three or four Kh-69s at a time.
Kh-69 range is 400 kilometers and Kh-69 covers that while traveling at 800-900 kilometers an hour. Guidance is GPS with a backup jam-proof INS (Inertial Navigation System). This means a Kh-69 will land within a few meters of its aim point and the 300 kg of explosives in its warhead will detonate with considerable effect. This was demonstrated when three Kh-69s demolished a Ukrainian power plant. Ukrainian air defenses have detected and shot down a few Kh-69s but found that these missiles were difficult to detect and because they flew so low, were problematic targets for air-defense systems. Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia has few Kh-69s and is unable to build a lot more in the near future. Russia will probably let the few Kh-69s they receive accumulate until they have a few dozen that use them all in a massive, and usually more effective attack on Ukrainian targets. The Ukrainian capital Kyiv could be a target despite the substantial air defenses protecting the city.
Russia still has dozens of older Kh-59 missiles. The Kh-69 is a much improved Kh-59. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, they had about 300 Kh-59 missiles and by 2024 these were gone. Russia can build a hundred or so Kh-59s a year and is continuing to do so. As is the Russian custom, these missiles are accumulated as they are produced so they can be used in large numbers all at once. This has more impact and also overwhelms air defense systems which can only destroy ten or twenty percent of the incoming missiles.