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NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICALWEAPONS

November 10, 2005: The danger that a mutated variety of avian flu (the H5N1 strain) could result in a devastating pandemic, has been widely reported. The focus of concern, however, has been the possibility that domestic poultry might serve as a vector for spreading the disease, with a somewhat lower level of concern about migratory birds. In fact, given increasing international monitoring of poultry and migratory birds, the real threat of an avian flu outbreak is likely to be as a result of bird smuggling.

There is an enormous international black market in birds. Most of the trade provides misguided animal lovers with rare or exotic specimens, but part of it goes to supply birds for cockfighting enthusiasts or forbidden treats such as the rare ortolan for hungry gourmets. The 330,000 birds that are legally imported into the U.S. every year go through a rigid quarantine system that included veterinary testing. But the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that between 80,000 and 100,000 more come in illegally, and thus without the rigid screening.

In a recent batch of smuggled birds tested by the Fish and Wildlife Service, about a third of the sample tested positive for H5N1. Some idea of the degree to which bird smuggling may pose a threat to public health, Britain's first cases of avian flu occurred in birds brought into the country by a smuggler who had reportedly made over six million dollars in the illegal trade.

What worries counter-terrorism officials is a coordinated movement of birds ill with avian flu, with the intention of causing great economic loss to American domestic and wild birds, as well as increasing the risk of the avian flu mutating into a more lethal (to humans) version. But, in the meantime, bird smugglers may do the same thing just by going about their usual illegal business.