November 24,2008:
The new government in Pakistan has apparently given the United States
access to the Pakistani intelligence network in the tribal areas along the
Afghan border. That helps explain the sharp increase in missiles exploding near
terrorist leaders lately. The border area is where the Taliban and al Qaeda
have had safe havens for a long time. Sort of. No place is safe from the
missile armed U.S. Predator and Reaper UAVs. In the last three months, there have
been more than two dozen U.S. missile strikes (usually with 107 pound Hellfires
launched from Predator or Reaper UAVs) in Pakistan. The Taliban and al Qaeda
have lost over a dozen senior leaders to these attacks.
At the same
time, Pakistan is running a public relations campaign in support of these
Hellfire attacks. It goes like this. These Hellfire missile attacks are not
popular with most Pakistanis, who see these UAV operations as a violation of
Pakistani sovereignty. At the same time, Pakistan wants the attacks to
continue, as the Hellfire missiles have killed dozens of key Taliban and al
Qaeda leaders so far this year. This has helped make it possible for the
Pakistani army to attack the Taliban and al Qaeda bases in Pakistan, without
taking heavy casualties (and the risk of being forced to call off the attacks
because of that).
But why not
give Pakistan the UAVs and missiles and let them do the deed? Not possible,
because of the large number of pro-terrorist personnel in Pakistani
intelligence. With the U.S. making the attacks, there are no leaks. Intel
information from the Pakistanis, plus what American operators obtain from their
own spies in the border region, make it possible to locate terrorist leaders,
without the bad guys getting warned by pro-terrorist operators in Pakistani
intelligence. To make this work, the Pakistani government has to admit that the
attacks are taking place (to appease many politicians under pressure from
nationalist constituents), and keep protesting to the U.S., while simultaneously
(and discreetly) feeding the Americans more information (especially from the hundreds of Islamic militants captured
in the past few months) about Taliban and al Qaeda operations in Pakistan. The
U.S. generally ignores the Pakistani protests, although placating press
releases are issued periodically.
Pakistan has
always had people in the tribal territories who would, usually for a fee, pass
on information about who was where. This sort of information was collected just
to try and maintain a sense of who was who in the tribal territories, and what
they might be up to. The Pakistanis have known for several years that the al
Qaeda people along the border were behind dozens of terror bombings in
Pakistani cities, including several directed at senior Pakistani government
officials. Thus killing al Qaeda leaders is popular with most Pakistanis, and
the government makes much of any Hellfire strikes that do that. While the
missile strikes often upset locals, most Pakistanis don't sympathize much. It's
been that tribal support, or simply tolerance, that has brought much terrorism
to Pakistan, and most Pakistanis would just like to see this madness disappear.