June 26, 2007:
China is having trouble keeping its
generals and admirals under control. This has always been a problem in police
states. The first communist nation, the Soviet Union, solved this by killing
thousands of senior military officials in the 1930s. There were side effects.
The "Great Purge" was bad for
morale, and hurt the nations ability to defend itself when the Germans invaded
in 1941. Two decades later, the Russians tried another approach. In return for
keeping their mouths shut and staying out of politics, the military was given
what amounted to a blank check. Oh, there was one other detail. The promise was
made, and kept, by one faction in the Communist Party, that wanted to oust,
without a civil war, the then current head of the Soviet Union, Nikita
Khrushchev. Unfortunately, this deal led to arms race with the United States
which, after two decades, wrecked the Russian economy.
The Chinese Communist Party noted the Russian
experience, and sought to avoid making the same mistakes. During the 1960s and
70s, China went through a period similar to the Russian Great Purge of the
1930s. However, China's "Great Cultural Revolution" did not do as much damage
to the army, and in 1976, the army backed a group of moderate Party leaders in
shutting down the Cultural Revolution for good.
Since then, the military has been well taken care
of. The generals were allowed to go into business when the economy was opened
up in the 1980s. Unfortunately, after a decade of that, it was noted that the
generals were more interested in getting rich, than in seeing to their military
responsibilities. So the government shut down a lot of those businesses. The
generals were not happy, but they obeyed. The generals even stepped up in 1989,
when the government needed muscle to shut down massive pro-democracy
demonstrations in the capital.
For the last decade, the military has received
larger and larger budgets. The size of the military was cut by over a million
troops and the generals and admirals were pretty much allowed to spend the
money as they thought best. But now it appears that corruption, incompetence
and insubordination are undercutting all this additional spending. Communist
Party leaders are again unsure of the loyalty of their generals. One gets the
impression, from following the Chinese media, that generals can mouth off
whenever they like, without having to clear their comments with their Communist
Party bosses. In theory, the main job of the military is to preserve the
political power of the Party. But with all that money sloshing around in
military bank accounts, many generals seem more interested in pocketing part of
it, or spending it on pet projects.
A first, a few years ago, it was believed that the
Chinese leadership had some mysterious plan for all the new things the generals
were buying. But now it appears that there's no plan, just a shopping spree by
a lot of independent minded military big-shots. It's all very expensive, and
worrisome.