December 17, 2024: In September of this year members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, met in Wilmington Delaware with the leaders of the United States, Australia, India and Japan. This group was first formed in 2004. The U.S. president is at the end of his term and will be replaced next month by Donald Trump to discuss mutual concerns over economic and defense issues. The primary defense issue is the growing presence of Chinese ships and trading companies throughout the region from the South China Sea, the Philippines and points west to the Persian Gulf. China seeks to dominate the South China Sea and most sea routes between East Asia and the Indian Ocean. This includes the Strait of Malacca, which controls transit between East Asia and the Indian Ocean as well as the Persian Gulf and adjacent destinations. These routes are of vital importance for the United States, Japan and India. China seeks to control these routes as part of its campaign to conquer Taiwan without a fight. Another Chinese asset needing protection is access to their shipyards.

Chinese shipbuilders have been striving to overtake their main rival South Korea as the largest shipbuilder in the world in all categories. There are several ways to measure shipbuilder output and South Korea is the champion in most of them. Japan was once in first place but now must settle for third place. South Korea and China have been close competitors for first place since 2012 and to that end, the two largest South Korean shipbuilders merged in 2019.

In 2018 South Korean firms surpassed China in new orders. This was mainly because South Korean shipbuilders are seen as leaders in the construction of more complex transports, in particular, LNG/Liquid Natural Gas vessels. Demand for LNG ships is driven by the growing output of natural gas in the United States and Canada as a result of improved extraction methods. The North American natural gas market is saturated and American and Canadian producers can afford to lower prices enough to export large quantities via LNG carriers. Europe seeks LNG because the current major supplier is Russia and Russia is seen as more of a danger than a reliable economic partner.

The Quad members are eager to increase their combined naval forces. Progress is demonstrated in the annual Malabar naval exercises as more ships from Quad nations show up to reinforce Indian naval forces. The Indian navy has 18 submarines, two aircraft carriers, twelve destroyers, thirteen frigates, eighteen corvettes and ten OPVs/offshore patrol vessels. The OPVs are used to guard the northeast coast where India borders a hostile Pakistan. The Indian navy is not large enough to defend the Indian Ocean. Since all Quad members depend on access to the Indian Ocean for commerce, any Chinese moves to threaten Indian Ocean traffic is potentially disastrous for all Quad members.