April 5, 2007:
On March 23rd Iranian naval forces
captured 15 British naval personnel. Over the following 12 days, while
Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair undertook a series of diplomatic
initiatives (shunning calls for immediate military action, but involving
fortuitously scheduled Anglo-American naval maneuvers in the area), statements
emanating from Tehran were characterized by increasing stridency, culminating
in announcements by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the prisoners
would soon be put on trial for violating Iranian territorial waters, espionage,
and more. Then, quite suddenly, on April 4th, Ahmadinejad made the surprising
announcement that the prisoners would be released without any strings attached.
What was that Ahmadinejad, who has little real power in Iran, had his own
strongs pulled.
Naturally, Ahmadinejad's announcement was larded
with phrasing that continued to accuse Britain of various offenses, and he took
pains to praise himself. In fact, however, the release of the prisoners
indicates that Ahmadinejad has suffered a major defeat in the covert
power-struggle between Iran's revolutionary radicals and the country's
conservative, but realistic, religious leadership, which holds the ultimate
power.
The religious leadership, headed by Supreme Leader
Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has a different agenda than the more radical elements
of the country's revolutionary movement, represented by Ahmadinejad, and backed
by the Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is the second major defeat that
Ahmadinejad has suffered at the hands of the religious leadership. Just a few
months ago Supreme Leader Khamenei stripped Ahmadinejad from any role in the
country's nuclear power program, after his bungling efforts to develop nuclear
weapons resulted in the imposition of stringent sanctions by an unusually
united U.N. Security council.
Grabbing the British sailors angered Ahmadinejads
superiors, but Ahmadinejad was on a roll for a while. Sticking it to Great
Britain is immensely popular in Iran. Although the United States is the
"Great Satan", Britain is more disliked. For centuries, before the
U.S. showed up in the region during World War II, Britain thwarted Iranian
ambitions, often to humiliating effect.
But Iran has been a great regional power for thousands of years by
avoiding reckless behavior. Britain is still a major player in the world of
commerce and banking. Long term, a vengeful Britain could do much harm to Iran.
Ahmadinejad may not have cared about this, but his superiors did.
Ahmadinejad is the front man for a coalition of
factions that represent the more radical clerics running the Iranian religious
dictatorship. Some of Ahmadinejads allies are openly contemptuous of democracy,
while most simply believe is the worldwide Islamic revolution and the
destruction of Israel and the United States. Some of Ahmadinejads buddies are
in favor of forcibly converting Sunni Moslems into Shia. All this scares the
hell out of most Moslems, and Arabs in particular. Thus the Iranian
"Islamic Revolution", despite nearly three decades of effort, has
little to show for it. To further complicate matters, Ahmadinejad is a major
proponent of clean government and prosecuting corrupt officials. Most of the
clerics running the country are dirty, in that respect, including some of
Ahmadinejads allies.
Ahmadinejad has now suffered two major, more or
less public, rebukes from the religious authorities. This may force him to curb
his enthusiasm for radical action, or try again, in the hope of rebuilding his
influence. Then again, Ahmadinejad is a true Islamic radical, believing himself
on a mission from God. For someone like that, failure is not an option.