May 7, 2007:
While the Communist Party controls the
Chinese government, the central government is losing control at the local
level. It's all about money. It's all about the rapidly growing economy, and
corruption. The corruption is increasingly out of control, with government
officials (most also members of the Communist Party) owning or controlling most
of the country. About half of the Chinese work force is employed by state owned
enterprises. These companies are much less efficient than those in the private
sector, but the government can't privatize them without risking creating
millions of angry, unemployed workers. All the growth has come from the private
sector, which was let loose about two decades ago. Back then, 40 percent of the
entrepreneurs setting up private companies were government officials. Today,
it's nearly 70 percent. That's got a lot to do with the corruption. Government
officials cooperate with each other to hobble mere citizens trying to start a
business. Moreover, the local governments are increasing their power, at the
expense of the central government. They do this by grabbing more of the taxes,
before the central government can get at it. The central government is
increasingly worried about the amount of influence the local government has on
local police and, more worryingly, military units based nearby.
The corruption translates into
about ten percent of the GDP, and that's money outside the control of the
central government. Anti-corruption campaigns have learned that, if a dirty
official has enough cash, and bought friends, he cannot be convicted. The government
has found that even a lot of bad publicity won't bring down the bad actors. A
corrupt official with half a brain buys himself the favor of local media.
Most Chinese entrepreneurs work the
system. The government officials may be crooks, but for the right price, you
can do business with them. However, the majority of Chinese are getting
screwed, and the increase in violent demonstrations and attacks on officials is
worrisome. The widespread availability of the Internet and cell phones makes it
easier to organize mass opposition. This worries many government officials,
both the honest ones and the corrupt.
From a military point of view, all
this corruption has a positive angle. The Chinese military is also quite
corrupt, and this prevents modernization efforts from being as effective as
they could be. Chinese leaders know that too many of their generals are more
concerned with getting rich, and hanging on to their money, than in developing
effective ways to conquer Taiwan, or defend China from attack. At the same
time, the Taiwanese do business by local rules on the mainland. This keeps
Taiwanese espionage efforts going (everything is for sale, including military
secrets), and makes Taiwanese businesses profitable on the mainland. That
profitability means many Chinese businessmen, who are also government
officials, don't want to destroy the value of their own assets by trashing
Taiwan in a war.