March 22, 2025: Russia wants to end the Ukraine War via negotiations with the United States. This will work if done from a position of strength. The current Russian situation is weak and getting weaker. Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is starting to collapse in some or many areas because of disinvestment. Existing capital and human infrastructure like railroads, pipelines, refineries, chemical plants, skilled workers, etc. need constant new investment for rebuilding and training of new workers in addition to adequate maintenance just to continue at existing production levels. None of those have happened at adequate levels, or not all in many cases, since the war started three years ago. This is due to overuse notably for the rail system, corruption and the expected consequences of Russian industries being run by Putin-appointed gangster kleptocrats primarily interested in their immediate personal income, as opposed to shareholder representatives trying to maintain capital value. Russia’s economy has been slowly run down over the past twenty years by its gangster kleptocracy. This process has been vastly speeded up by the Ukraine War.

Plus recent Russian negotiations with allies and other foreign countries have not gone well. These nations, especially those bordering Russia, can see who is weak, and it isn’t NATO or Ukraine. Russia is weakened by years of economic sanctions and a collapse of morale at home. Russian men are avoiding military recruiters and others are fleeing the country. Hiring North Korean soldiers was a short term solution because most of these foreign troops soon became casualties or disappeared.

Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and families while only Russian leader Vladimir Putin sees any purpose for Russia in the war. Putin can demand action but, if his soldiers will not or cannot act, there is no movement on the battlefield. Putin is running out of excuses for this dismal performance and still insists he is negotiating from a position of strength.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Putin and his associates believed they were at war with western nations, especially NATO and the United States. NATO nations were not really aware of this Russian attitude, even after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The official Russian interpretation of the situation is that Ukraine is under the control of the Americans. For that reason, Russian propaganda directed at Russian civilians portrays Ukraine as a puppet state controlled by the United States.

Russian leaders are dismayed that when Russia threatens the United States for one reason or another, the Americans ignore them. Russian leaders get the impression that the Americans don’t take them seriously. There are reasons for that and the most obvious one is the rampant corruption in Russia.

The government is particularly concerned about the extent of corruption in the military. This alone should have prevented the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was ordered to proceed by Vladimir Putin despite the poor state of the Russian military. Russian troops stumbled forward into Ukraine and suffered such heavy losses that the invasion force was withdrawn and the survivors sent to eastern Ukraine to reinforce troops in Luhansk and Donetsk provinces.

Ukraine appealed to NATO for military aid and the response was impressive. Over 100 billion dollars’ worth of weapons soon arrived, followed by billions of dollars’ worth of economic aid. The Americans provided Ukraine with satellite photos of what the Russians were up to. It was later discovered that the Russians had no similar satellite services. The Ukrainians had a better picture of what was happening on the ground than the Russians did.

It got worse when the Ukrainians got Starlink communications kits. This gave them far better and more reliable communications than the Russians had. Some Russian troops got hold of black market Starlink gear and got past the security system to discover what they were missing. For Russian soldiers who knew about this, it explained why the Ukrainians always seemed to know more about what was going on in the combat zone and were able to act more quickly to deal with opportunities.

Putin saw all this as an American ploy to embarrass him and show the Russian military that their boss was unable to supply them with anything similar to what the Americans were providing to the Ukrainians. This was true but Putin warned Russians that they were dealing with an American colossus that was determined to destroy Russia.

The reality was that United States leaders, military and political, didn’t consider Russia or the Russian military very formidable. This was all revealed in Ukraine. Putin yearned for the pre-war times when he could portray the Russian military as a mighty force that was not crippled by corruption and incompetent and corrupt leadership.

The United States did not pay much attention to Russia. Instead the Americans are fixated on China and its new aircraft carriers and a fleet that is larger, in number of ships than the U.S. Navy. Putin also ignores the Chinese. He should because the Chinese are talking about taking back most of the Russian Far East province and renaming cities like Vladivostok with their original Chinese names like Yongmingcheng. This was a Chinese city that had been in this location for over a thousand years until the Russians forced China to surrender the territory to them in 1859 and renamed Yongmingcheng Vladivostok.

China wants its stolen territories back and Putin fears that while Russia is busy in Ukraine the Chinese might make a move. Putin notes that Western nations do not speak out against China regaining the territories taken by Russia 166 years ago. The Chinese have long memories and the Russians don’t, until it is too late. Putin may not be paranoid and he is correct about the terrible situation Russia is in.

At the same time Putin is forced by his generals to pay attention to what NATO nations bordering Russia are up to. Poland and the Baltic States welcomed American troops who visited and agreed with the U.S. proposal to build an American base in Poland. To eastern Europe NATO members, especially the Poles, this is a great idea. Putin sees it as an old Russian nightmare come to life.