December 31, 2024: In Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, one of the enduring problems since the end of World War II in 1945 is the difficult and often rebellious tribes in the north. One of the more troublesome tribes are the Arakan in northwest Burma. There, Rakhine state has been turning into a war zone where the Arakan are gaming ground as they battled their way south for over five years. The Arakan people are predominant in Rakhine state. Until 1990 this area was called Arakan State. The Arakan militias want their state back and by this year they had taken back most of Rakhine with most of the soldiers defending that area killed or missing. The missing soldiers were usually deserters who changed into civilian clothes and joined the growing number of civilian refugees fleeing the fighting.

Myanmar Army efforts to suppress the tribal forces have not only failed but the fighting has spread to most of Rakhine state. Soldiers have been fighting the Arakan Army/AA rebels in the area since mid-2019 and periods of active combat have been increasingly common in the last few months. Not a lot of casualties but enough armed men shooting at each other to make life miserable and the economy weaker.

The traditional army tactics initially worked in Rakhine and neighboring Shan states. The usual approach was to use a combination of artillery fire and advancing infantry to push AA rebels away from roads or other areas the army wants to control, at least temporarily. The rebels have adapted to that and taken advantage of growing anger throughout Rakhine state at the army. This is the result of several years of increased violence that is largely the fault of the army.

Part of this is due to the army campaign to drive hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Moslems into Bangladesh. Nearly a million Rohingya were pushed out of Rakhine in the past decade, and the government has not cooperated with Bangladesh and the UN to allow the Rohingya to return. That means Rakhine state has lost about 30 percent of its population and nearly all its Moslems.

Before all the anti-Rohingya violence started in 2011 Rakhine state had long been the poorest state in Burma. The economic situation got worse and worse through 2018 as the economy of Rakhine state was hurt badly by the population losses and disruption of economic activity in general. While the rest of the country saw an improved economy since democracy returned in 2011, it’s been quite the opposite in Rakhine and the remaining tribal militias have shown a preference for fighting the army rather than just submitting to the growing poverty and chaos.

The violence in Rakhine never escalates into what might be considered heavy combat. It is a war of skirmishes. There have been a lot more skirmishes over a wider area in the last few years. In that time several hundred thousand civilians, mostly rural villagers, have been driven away by the fighting and the army's reliance on lots of firepower. Rakhine state only has about two million people so that many refugees is a heavy burden. The escalation began in mid-2018 as the army increased its efforts to impose control on Rakhine and Chin states along the west coast. A major reason for all this army effort is the army attempts to tax illegal enterprises established by tribesmen. The tribes have been mistreated by the military for so long it is difficult to generate a lot of trust and put an end to the armed resistance. So the army decided to try more emphasis on brute force. This posed some special problems in Rakhine state because of the AA rebels.

Unlike most tribal militias in the north, the AA was never given official recognition, in large part because the AA was more of a gangster operation than just tribal rebels. All this police activity was unpopular but at least it was less arbitrary and lawless than what the army does. Soldiers tend to torture and kill people they pick up or kidnap. That sort of behavior has always been illegal but now some violators are prosecuted. AA leaders believe they are winning and have established base camps and a headquarters in Rakhine state. The AA and their ally the KIA/Kachin Independence Army have joined forces to recruit and train local men to resist the army. Together the two rebel groups have over 10,000 armed men.

In nearby Shan state, the army has been fighting KIA/Kachin Independence Army forces. Efforts to seize KIA base areas in the forests have failed. The AA and the KIA are long-time allies and have joined forces to recruit and train local men to resist the army. This combined force of over 20,000 well-armed troops is expensive to maintain and the rebels pay for it with all manner of legitimate and illegal money-raising schemes.