October 21,2008:
South Korea and Japan are
concerned about the Chinese military buildup, because the most likely Chinese
strategy calls for attacks on U.S. aircraft stationed in Japan and South Korea.
It works like this. The closest airbase to Taiwan, with U.S. warplanes, is Kadena (800 kilometers
away) in Japan (Okinawa, actually). Obviously, if the Chinese want to prevent
prompt U.S. aircraft reinforcements heading for Taiwan, they would attack
Kadena. The Chinese have over a hundred ballistic missiles within range of
Kadena. A few dozen of these, using submunitions, could shut down Kadena, and
destroy many aircraft. Japan has some anti-missile defenses, but these are on
the main islands, over 500 kilometers to the north.
Farther away
are bases in South Korea (1,200 kilometers) and Guam (2,400 kilometers). China
is cozy with North Korea, but would probably not try and coerce the North Koreans
to invade (to prevent the U.S. warplanes from flying off to Taiwan). But,
again, Chinese missiles are within range of U.S. air bases in South Korea,
sufficient to do much damage, and delay aircraft from quickly moving off to
Taiwan. Guam, which is U.S. territory, is reachable by only a few Chinese
missiles, but is so far away that many aerial tankers would be needed to move
combat ready aircraft to Taiwan quickly.
The Japanese
and South Koreans have to decide, perhaps without telling the Americans, if they
would just absorb this attack, and not declare war on China. This is what the
Chinese would like, and they have probably discreetly raised the issue. By
promising to only attack the Americans, the Chinese could isolate Taiwan for
quick conquest, and avoid a war with Japan and South Korea. This conflict would
mainly be naval and air forces cutting off Chinese trade and doing great damage
to the Chinese economy (and control the current Communist Party officials have
in their unpopular police state.)