November 30, 2024: Faced with certain defeat in Ukraine, Russia turned to Asymmetric Warfare. This involved using a number of less visible weapons including Electronic Warfare, sabotage and hacking NATO electronic networks to steal information and disrupt NATO operations. Asymmetric warfare has been all the rage for the last two decades. The prime example given is the Islamic terrorist use of roadside bombs and suicide bombers in Iraq between 2003 and 2010. These tactics terrorized Iraqis working for the Americans, and generated propaganda on the Internet to spin the mass media against the much more powerful U.S. forces. To the surprise of those following this via the mass media, the U.S. defeated al Qaeda, and the pro-Saddam Hussein terrorists in Iraq. Russia dismissed this victory because the Americans were fighting Arabs. Despite that, Russia sought to use the same techniques in Ukraine.

What the media missed was that the military, at least the Ukrainian forces, were trained to deal with asymmetric situations as a matter of course. To a soldier, asymmetric means the unknown. All warfare is asymmetric, as you always seek to utilize deception and surprise against your opponent. Those two elements are seen as the most effective methods for surviving and winning in combat.

In the opening stages of any war, there will be many asymmetric elements in play. Although armies try to figure out their opponents beforehand, the planners rarely get it completely right. So the opening stages of any war are full of unpleasant surprises. In 2022 Vladimir Putin thought he could defeat the Ukrainians quickly before NATO could intervene with large quantities of weapons for the outnumbered Ukrainians. Putin was shocked that the Ukrainians fought back with unexpected vigor and destroyed the initial attack force and most of Russia’s modern tanks.

Putin had a Plan B, to back off and wage a terror campaign against the Ukrainians using thousands of high explosive-armed missiles fired at civilian and military targets. This was supposed to wear the Ukrainians out and intimidate the NATO nations supporting Ukraine. This didn’t work. It never has.

NATO and the Americans had been preparing for a Russian attack on Europe since 1949. Until 2022 the only Russian activity was threats and misinformation. This use of Asymmetric Warfare didn’t work either and the Russians accused NATO and the Americans of using it to bring down the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia came out of that collapse with a half its Soviet era population and a thirst for revenge.

The 2022 Russian attack on Ukraine saw Russia repeating its World War II mistake of expending soldiers at a tremendous rate. While the United States lost .3 percent of their population fighting World War II, Russia lost 18 percent, a third of them civilians.

After World War II quantity became even less effective. At that point, atomic bombs and a lot of other high tech weapons and equipment made large armies less useful. Just sacrificing people was no longer as great an advantage. By the end of the 20th century it was obvious to all that an army of professional soldiers was far more effective than one that contained a lot of conscripts, even if armed with lots of tanks and other weapons. Russia agreed with this in theory, but when they invaded Ukraine in 2022, it was clear that Russia had not changed.

Despite the heavy personnel and tank losses in Ukraine, Russia decided to reform and rebuild after the war. Russian forces are still in Ukraine but are much diminished. Russia has a comeback plan but no one, including most Russians, know what it is.

Other nations have found that just trying to catch up with the American military tech was too expensive and surpassing the U.S. was extremely difficult. China is the latest major power to give it a go and they too have fallen back on a strategy of searching for new ways of fighting to compensate for the American real or apparent tech advantage. Asymmetric warfare is why the Chinese have been so aggressive in the use of Internet based espionage and the concept of Cyber War in general. This is a new technology area and the Chinese were able to steal a lot of the American tech and even leap ahead. This is a big gamble but the Chinese are not getting ready for World War 3, they are just trying to even the odds in case things do go sideways and they find themselves at war with those clever and lavishly equipped Americans.

Meanwhile, the United States is being forced to reconsider how it equips and operates its armed forces. The money is not there, it is not going to be there, and prices for new warships and aircraft will only come down if cheaper models are bought or the development process adopts some wartime practices. That is unlikely as long as politicians see the defense budget as a source of campaign funds.

This is why the Americans have turned to Asymmetric Warfare and new developments in Ukraine. Drone warfare quickly came to dominate the war and that was unexpected. In wartime the combatants are forced to do all manner of unconventional and unexpected things to survive. Ukraine did drones and redefined the shape of modern warfare. Ukraine also used Asymmetric Warfare, which was less visible than thousands of drones. The drones were part of Asymmetric Warfare tactics Ukraine used against Russia to turn Putin’s sure thing invasion into a quagmire where Putin’s hopes and dreams of victory went to die.