November 1, 2024: In September China had one of its new Zhou class Type 041 submarines sink at a pier. The cause was human error. This Type 041 submarine was the first of its class and easily identified because it had an X shaped rear rudder. The 041’s displace 3,000 tons and are powered by an AIP (Air Independent Propulsion) system. Initially it was believed the 041 used a nuclear reactor. Then someone realized that the shipyard the 041 was being built in was not equipped to install nuclear reactors.

A US Navy nuclear submarine under construction, the Guitarro (SSN-665), sank in a similar accident in 1969. A failure of communication between two teams at opposite ends of the sub led each to simultaneously fill fore and aft ballast tanks until it sank at dockside.

The Type 041 is a third generation Chinese submarine that has VLS tubes for at least half a dozen anti-ship and land attack missiles. Torpedoes are also carried. Crew size is about 70 and endurance is several months.

Since the 1970s, China has been trying to develop and build nuclear submarines competitive with Russian and Western boats. Their latest nuclear submarines, the Type 096 SSN and Type 094 SSBN, appear to have closed the quality and performance gap with similar Russian subs. The U.S. Navy confirmed the improvements, which makes the Chinese subs more formidable adversaries. Currently only six Type 093 SSNs and six Type 94 SSBNs are in service. The first (of six) 094 SSBN entered service in 2007 while the first (of six) 093 SSN entered service in 2006. Their replacements, the 095 SSN and 096 SSBN, are expected to enter service during the late 2020s. Two Type 041 AIP submarines are also under construction and one of these recently sank accidently at pier side.

This first Chinese Type 091 sub entered service in 1974 after being under construction for nearly a decade. It was retired in 2000 but three of the other four o91 SSNs remain in service, undergoing numerous upgrades. In 2013 Chinese media declared that in 42 years of operation no Chinese nuclear sub has ever suffered a nuclear reactor accident. This was an indirect dig at the Russians, who are the only nation with nuclear subs to have suffered nuclear accidents, in part because most nuclear subs ever built were Russian. During the first 60 years of existence several hundred billion dollars has been spent on developing and building nuclear powered submarines. Some 400 have been built so far, most of them Russian.

In the 1990s China began investing heavily in building warships. By 2021 they had the largest fleet in the world in terms of numbers of warships and expect to increase the size of their fleet nearly 30 percent by the end of the decade while the Americans were having problems maintaining the force that China just passed in terms of number of warships, but not yet in total tonnage.

China still has some more fundamental naval needs. For example, China has never demonstrated any talent or enthusiasm for anti-submarine warfare. Considering the number of nuclear and conventional subs arrayed against it, anti-submarine warfare should have higher priority in China. Another serious shortcoming is mine-clearing capability. The Chinese Navy is well equipped to plant mines off hostile shores and in defense of its own waters but there is not a lot of capability to clear enemy mines. Many navies share this shortcoming but for a major maritime trading nation like China, it would be sad to see all that trade shut down by a few hundred naval mines.

China has three fleets. The Northern Fleet faces Korea and southern Japan. It currently has 66 warships, including an aircraft carrier, 18 attack submarines, four of them nuclear powered SSNs and the rest diesel-electric, 13 destroyers, 12 frigates, 12 corvettes and 15 fast patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles. There are also five amphibious ships that can carry tanks and other vehicles onto a beach.

The Eastern Fleet faces the East China Sea and Taiwan. It has over 140 ships including 18 diesel-electric submarines, 13 destroyers, 23 frigates, 24 corvettes and 38 fast patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles. There are also 24 amphibious ships that can land tanks and other vehicles onto a beach plus three larger amphibious ships with a flight deck.

The Southern Fleet faces Taiwan and the South China Sea. It has about 110 warships including an aircraft carrier and a new base for carriers and subs. There are 22 submarines including 14 diesel-electric and two SSNs. There are also six SSBN (nuclear powered ballistic missile) subs. There are ten destroyers, 14 frigates, 20 corvettes and 14 fast patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles. There are also 15 amphibious ships that can land tanks and other vehicles onto a beach and five larger amphibious ships with a flight deck.

The Northern Fleet must deal with the two largest and most formidable fleets in the region; South Korea and Japan.

The Eastern Fleet has the longest coastline to defend and the new coast guard comes in handy to help, often using retired and repurposed corvettes. The Eastern Fleet also must assist the Northern Fleet against South Korea and Japan as well as any attack on Taiwan.

The Southern Fleet is currently concentrating on the South China Sea, as well as contributing forces for any attack on Taiwan.

In addition to new nuclear sub designs, the Chinese Navy has innovated in other ways. For example, during 2022 China introduced the Zhu Hai Yun, a 2,000-ton ship that carries up to fifty unmanned submarine, surface and airborne drones. Zhu Hai Yun is operated remotely to get it out to the high seas, where the ship operates autonomously to carry out a variety of missions it is capable of. China is depending on its AI (Artificial Intelligence) software to effectively carry out its mission and then signal that it is returning. The U.S. Navy has similar but smaller (145-ton) unmanned surface ships that do not carry and operate other autonomous vehicles but can stay at sea for up to sixty days carrying out ASW (anti-submarine warfare) missions. The navy has also developed larger autonomous cargo ships to move supplies long distances. Smaller armed and unarmed autonomous vessels have been in service for decades to patrol ports and coastal areas. China believes it has a lead in AI control software and the Zhu Hai Yun is an effort to test that. The Americans are depending on less ambitious technologies that have produced impressive results so far, while a new Orca autonomous submarine takes those proven concepts further than ever before.

Currently China has about 65 diesel-electric and nuclear submarines in service versus 42 operated by Japan and South Korea, each with 21. Malaysia and Indonesia each have two and Australia has six. The United States has about 30 nuclear attack subs in the Pacific versus a dozen Chinese SSNs and SSBNs. The anti-China coalition also has a large array of surface and aerial ASW forces.