January 3, 2008:
Afghanistan presents a
unique counter-terrorism problem, and it's being dealt with via a classic
carrot and stick technique. While Afghanistan is currently producing 90 percent
of the world's heroin, 87 percent of it is coming from just five of the
nation's 34 provinces. Several of the Pushtun tribes in that area are basically
in rebellion against the government over their drug production activities.
While the Taliban wails on about defending Islam, the tribes are really all
about several billion dollars a year in income from the production of opium,
and the heroin that is derived from it. Greed, guns and tribal loyalties have
long been a lethal combination in Afghanistan.
In the rest of the country, where the
other 13 percent of the poppies (the plant that yields opium) are grow, the
government is succeeding in persuading (with cash incentives) farmers to switch
away from growing poppies. In the five southern provinces, the Taliban and drug
gangs don't allow the farmers that choice. Moreover, that bit of terrorism
extends to any efforts by the government or foreign aid agencies, to improve
anything. The gangs, and the Taliban, want to "own" the poppy farmers, and will
attack anyone (either the farmers, or anyone helping them) that tries to intervene.
The southern tribes are in a difficult
situation. Many of the tribal elders believe that, in the long run, the drug
gangs can't win. They know that the Pakistani succeeded in driving the drug
trade out of the Pakistani tribal areas (and some know that Burma shut down the
decades old heroin trade in its China border area as well). If the Afghan
government didn't have NATO as an ally, the drug rich tribes might have a
chance (of cutting a deal with the Kabul crowd). But against smart bombs and
those Western commandos, it's a lost cause. Alas, the elders don't always have
the last word. The younger guys have gotten rich off this drug business, and
have never had it so good. No way are they going to give up the good life, at
least not without a considerable amount of persuasion.
The Afghan government, dominated by
Pushtuns (who are the largest minority, at 40 percent of the 30 million
population), have been trying to negotiate deals with the southern tribes, to
stem the spread of Taliban and drug gang power. This is a typical carrot and
stick deal. The government plays up the fact that the NATO troops are welcome
guests, and the Taliban are disliked for their totalitarian and terroristic
ways. The drugs gangs act like arrogant thugs, flaunting their wealth and generally
making most everyone miserable. While the farmers should be making a lot of
money, the drug gangs pay as little as they can get away with. Since the gangs
are better armed than even a large valley full of farmers, the bad guys get
away with this. The heroin business is making a few hundred people very rich,
and a lot of other Afghans miserable, or dead.
So while NATO is the stick, the Afghan
government plays the good cop, and keeps offering carrots. This has worked,
even in areas of the south that are thick with Taliban. The people running the
Afghan government may be as corrupt as the Kabul politicians have ever been,
but they know their own history, and they know how to hustle tribesmen who are
behaving badly.