March 17,2008:
After seven years of intense
effort, Western counter-terror organizations appear to have developed a growing
network of spies within al Qaeda, and other Islamic terrorist organizations.
There are two primary reasons for this (aside from persistence). First, there
was the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq. The 2004 al Qaeda decision to undertake a
massive terror campaign in Iraq did much to reduce al Qaeda's stature
throughout the Arab world. Many al Qaeda members, and supporters became
demoralized at the slaughter of so many Moslems, and the inability to kill many
infidels (non-Moslems). Opinion surveys throughout the Moslem world clearly
show al Qaeda popularity declining as the number of Moslem terror victims in
Iraq increased. The same pattern could be seen on pro-al Qaeda web sites. Much
of this chatter never got much exposure in the West, because most of it was in
Arabic, and rarely monitored and translated by news organizations. But the
number of Islamic radicals, unhappy with how Islamic terrorists have been
operating, just keeps growing. This provided opportunities for Western intel
agencies to get inside the terror networks.
To find
and recruit the spies, much help was received from Israel. While many European
nations are openly hostile to Israeli counter-terror techniques, Western
intelligence agencies are usually eager to work with their Israeli
counterparts. The Israelis defeated a Palestinian terror campaign, begun in
2000, by recruiting a wide network of informants inside the Palestinian
population. They did this using techniques similar to any police organization
(bribes, blackmail, favors), but did it with a knowledge of, and sensitivity to,
Arab culture. About a third of the Israeli Jewish population are descended from
Jews chased out of Arab countries in the late 1940s. These Jews look like Arabs because they, like the
original Jews, part of a Semitic population. These Sephardic Jews can speak
Arab dialects like a native, and often still know many of the cultural customs
of their non-Jewish Arab neighbors from
the old country. This cultural knowledge, and ability to pass as a Moslem Arab,
made it possible for the Israelis to more effectively recruit among the
Palestinians, and get a constant stream of good information on what the
terrorist organizations were up to. Israel showed the Western intel agencies,
especially the ones in Europe, how to seek and recruit informants from among
their Moslem populations.
The key
was to get informants who were involved in Islamic radical activities. That has
apparently been happening with increasing frequency. The chatter on Islamic
radical websites is increasingly about traitors within the ranks of the
"brothers." The results of this can be seen in the increasing number of terror
plots that are aborted, by arrests of the participants, before they can be carried out.
Interestingly,
this development has been least useful in the United States. There, a culture
of acceptance (especially compared to the rest of the world) has created a
larger proportion of Moslem-Americans willing, and often eager, to pass on any
terrorist related information. But in Europe, where Moslems are more often
likely to feel like outsiders, even after generations of living there, the need
to recruit informants was more crucial.