February 7, 2008:
Iran, or, to be more
precise, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that they had
flight tested a new, Iranian made, helicopter gunship. They also announced a
new UAV with a range of 2,000 kilometers. Five months ago, the Iranians showed
off a new Iranian made jet fighter, which appeared to be a make-work project
for unemployed engineers. It's a bunch of rearranged parts on an old U.S. made
F-5 (which was roughly equivalent to a 1950s era MiG-21). The new fighter, like
so many other Iranian weapons projects, is more for PR than for improving
military power.
If you go back and look at the many
Iranian announcements of newly developed, high tech, weapons, all you find is a
photo op for a prototype. Production versions of these weapons rarely show
up. Iranians know that, while the
clerics and politicians talk a tough game, they rarely do anything. Even
Iranian support of Islamic terrorism has been far less effective than the
rhetoric. The Iranians have always been cautious, which is one reason Arabs
fear them. When the Iranians do make their move, it tends to be decisive. But
at the moment, the Iranians have no means to make a decisive move. Their
military is mostly myth, having been run down by decades of sanctions, and the
disruptions of the 1980s war with Iraq. Their most effective weapon is bluster,
and, so far, it appears to be working.
But the Iranians know that nuclear
weapons would make their bluff and bluster even more muscular. Even the
suspicion that they had nukes would be beneficial. And that appears to be the current
plan. One new weapon the Iranians do put a lot of money and effort into are
ballistic missiles. They are building an
extended range (from 1,300 to 1,800 kilometer) version of their Shahab 3 ballistic missile. The new version
puts all of Israel within range, even if fired from deep inside Iran.
Chemical warheads (with nerve gas) are thought
to be available for these missiles. But Israel has threatened to reply with
nuclear weapons if the Iranians attack this way. Iran would probably get the
worst of such an exchange, and the Iranians are aware of it.
Not all of the clerics that run the
country are eager to go to war with Israel, or even threaten it. But because
the clerical factions do not want to appear at odds with each other in public,
the more radical leaders are allowed to rant away about attacking Israel.
That's also the thinking behind the many IRGC press conferences announcing
imaginary new weapons. The clerics are not going spend billions on mass
production of second rate systems that are most notable for being designed in
Iran.