November 18,2008:
Without revealing the detailed scoreboard they are known to maintain, the
American CIA revealed that they believe al Qaeda has suffered major defeats in
Iraq, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, Southeast Asia, Chechnya, Europe and North
America. The terrorist organization is still present in all those areas, but in
a much diminished state. In North Africa and Southeast Asia, al Qaeda is
actually represented by like-minded groups like the GSPC (North Africa), Jemaah
Islamayih (Indonesia and Malaysia) and Abu Sayyaf (the Philippines). All these groups have taken a beating in
their own neighborhoods, and have pledged closer cooperation with al Qaeda out
of desperation. There, as well in Iraq and Egypt, the Islamic terrorists have
lost popular support by pursuing murderous tactics, killing many innocent
civilians, and not showing much, if any, remorse about it.
In the West
(Europe, North America, Australia) al Qaeda was done in by old fashioned police
work, and hostility by many local Moslems, who feel shamed by the horrors the
terrorists commit in the name of Islam. Al Qaeda has been using Europe as a
base, as well as fund raising and recruiting. But that is becoming more
difficult as counter-terror operations shut down more of their money making and
recruiting operations. Although there are thousands of pro-terrorist web sites,
these lose much of their effectiveness if al Qaeda is unable to catch the cash
and recruits and put them to work.
The remnants
of al Qaeda are taking refuge in the Pushtun tribal areas along the Afghan
Pakistan border. Here, the terrorists are often hunted and killed by the local
tribes. This hostile attitude was earned when al Qaeda tried their usual tactic
of murdering tribal chiefs who refused to cooperate. Al Qaeda has been trying
to make peace with all the Pushtun tribes, but even with their more
accommodating attitude, they are still not welcome in much of the tribal
territories.
In some
areas, al Qaeda is making progress. Somalia is one area where al Qaeda can
actually operate. But conditions there are primitive, and the atmosphere is
just plain hostile. Al Qaeda is still active in India and Bangladesh, but both
areas have aggressive counter-terrorist operations that make it difficult for
Islamic terrorism to flourish. Al Qaeda activity is also showing up wherever
there are significant Moslem, especially Arab, communities (South America, West
Africa) and continues to be popular in the growing Moslem communities in
Europe.
Al Qaeda, as
an organization, has also been much diminished since September 11, 2001. The
original leadership, especially Osama Bin Laden, no longer exercises much
control. Communications are extremely difficult, with a few trusted couriers the only way to get messages in or
out of the Pushtun tribal territory where these men have been hiding since late
2001. Al Qaeda has become an idea, a franchise, with little direction from the
center. Based on historical experience, movements like this die out after a
generation or two. Eventually al Qaeda will run out of young men willing to die
for the cause of world-wide Islamic domination.