November 11,2008:
Al Qaeda recruited heavily inside Iraq during the last five years, and
most of those recruits have remained. Most of the foreigners have fled, either
to their home countries, Western Europe or Afghanistan. Nearly all the al Qaeda
leadership in Iraq is now Iraqi, and most of the best ones have been killed or
captured this year. Much of this is due to tips from civilians, many of whom
are now prosperous enough to have cell phones. Much useful information also
comes from captured documents. Most of this data is kept secret, because it
often involves information on the internal workings of al Qaeda that will still
have value for a while, if the enemy doesn't know the other side has it.
Aside from
discussions of who should do what in these documents, there are also many
proposals for new tactics and techniques. It's been suggested that utilities
(water, sanitation and electricity) become a target once more, and this has led
to attacks on the water supply and electricity distribution. Iraqi security
forces guard these facilities now, and since Iraqis depend most on these
services, there is a built-in incentive to thwart the attacks, or at least
repair the damage quickly. Thus the recent terror attacks on water and power
have not had an impact commensurate with the people the terrorists have lost.
One suggestion that has been implemented recently is for suicide bombing
attacks on the growing number of hospitals and clinics that are being
established. In several recent attacks, al Qaeda has used women suicide bombers
(wearing explosives crammed vests) to enter hospitals or stand outside and kill
as many patients and staff as possible. These attacks have not been as bloody
as they could be because the bombs are of low quality, and the bombers poorly
trained and supervised. This is a direct result of the losses among experienced
al Qaeda personnel in the past year.
Al Qaeda has
had little success in attacking the oil production and transportation
facilities. These assets have been heavily guarded for some years now, and are
more concentrated that oil, sanitation and electricity targets. Al Qaeda plans
to poison the water supply never got anywhere. A captured al Qaeda document
from earlier this year suggested that this be done with nitric acid. But the
needed supply of acid was never obtained.
Al Qaeda is
having supply problems. Cars, explosives and people capable of building suicide
bombs are scarce. Most have been killed, captured, or compelled to seek other
means of employment. But there are still plenty of guns out there, which
explains the increased interest in kidnapping (for intimidation or cash) and
assassination (for intimidation or just to make a political point).
Many al
Qaeda operatives are only into terror part time. Criminal activities, to raise
money, are demanding more and more effort. You cannot run a terror operation on
hand outs. At least not in Iraq. It's cash-and-carry, especially if you are al
Qaeda (still the most hated outfit in the country). Iraqi security forces are
shifting resources to criminal gangs, believing that squeezing common criminals
will provide lots of leads to the remaining, and very hard core, al Qaeda
operators.