August 14, 2024: After a decade of conflict, counting Russia’s 2014 invasion and its sputtery aftermath, the fighting in Ukraine has evolved into a stalemate. Neither side has been able to achieve its goals. Ukraine, despite several hundred dollars in aid from NATO nations, has not been able to regain much territory taken by Russia over the last decade. The war has proven to be an expensive, in lives and money, stalemate.

Ukraine continues to receive aid from the NATO nations, which together comprise about half the global GDP. Russia is much less well-off and largely on its own. Only its oil and natural gas sales keep it going. Ukraine has no oil and natural gas wealth to sustain it and depends on NATO aid. Despite this advantage, the Russian have seen themselves spending a large portion of their oil & gas income on a stalemate in Ukraine.

Russia believes that Ukrainian efforts to join NATO are part of a NATO plot to surround and weaken Russia. This is not the case because Russia is doing that to itself with corruption, poor leadership and a declining population due to a low birth rate and the growing number of young Russians migrating to less corrupt countries seeking better employment and economic opportunities. The latter is much worse for Russia than the low birth rate which all industrialized countries share.

Both Russia and Ukraine have used drones and missiles to carry out attacks deep inside enemy territory. This causes damage but does not change the location of the front line, which is about 1,300 kilometers long. It takes an enormous number of troops to maintain those front line positions. This leaves few troops for offensive operations. Recent Russian attacks not only failed but got a lot of Russian troops killed. Thanks to the internet and so many soldiers on both sides having cell phones, details of these failed attacks were soon known by everyone on both sides. Morale among Russian troops subsequently fell while the Ukrainians were encouraged by the success of their defensive operations, which resulted in far fewer Ukrainian casualties.

Despite this, nearly three years of fighting have left troops on both sides reluctant to go on the offensive. Recent Russian offensives were characterized by many soldiers reluctant to advance. Russian leaders discussed employing the World War II era practice of using special troops to fire on reluctant soldiers during an attack. This did not work because this is not World War II and in the 21st century Russian soldiers ask embarrassing questions about why they are the invaders rather than, during World War II, the defenders of Russia against German invaders. Plus, unlike Soviet communist soldiers in World War Two, Russian soldiers shoot back at Russian troops shooting at them.

NATO nations also resist Russian threats of retaliation if Ukraine is allowed to join NATO. Joining is not possible if a country is at war and the current Russian plan is to keep the war in Ukraine going indefinitely, using low levels of violence to maintain Ukraine’s wartime status. NATO nations are aware of this and are debating creating an exception for Ukraine and allow it to join NATO despite continued military problems with Russia.

Russia is not inclined to accept this it because that would mean continuing the ruinous economic sanctions NATO nations imposed on Russia, Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine Russia has suffered growing economic losses because of the sanctions. The government tried to hide this from most of the Russian population, but eventually failed. Russian citizens are economically worse off than before the invasion and angry at their government for seeking to continue the war.

Neither side is willing to officially end it and the best possible outcome appears to be a deal similar to the armistice that stopped the 1950-53 Korean War. With an armistice the fighting halts but the grievances remain. The subsequent peace enables both sides to rebuild. That doesn’t always work because North Korea continued to be ruled by an incompetent dynasty provided by members of the Kim Jong Il family that started the war. The third generation of Kim’s is now in charge and continuing the family tradition of economic and political failure. Meanwhile South Korea prospers, becoming one of the top ten economies in the world.

A similar situation could develop in Ukraine, with Russia playing the role of North Korea while Ukraine is the pro-west South Korea. Currently Russia and North Korea are allies, while South Korea indirectly supplies Ukraine with weapons. This is done via shipments of South Korean weapons to NATO nations. South Korea demands that these weapons not be given to Ukraine. Instead the NATO nations unload all their existing weapons, including some Cold War era items, and resupply with the South Korean weapons. That works and Russia does not like it because it is lacks any major ally. China will sell Russia any commercial equipment it can afford at normal prices, but charges more for the sparse military equipment it pretends it is not selling. China plays games with Western sanctions and does not overtly flaunt its violation of those. Some Chinese equipment, like trucks and other logistical support items are dual use. That means they can be used for commercial or military operations. Russia buys weapons from North Korea and Iran but that does not provide enough firepower to subdue Ukraine, which continues to receive anti-missile missiles from NATO nations.

It appears that a stalemate is the best that Russia can achieve in Ukraine and even that will cost Russia more than most Russian citizens are willing to see spent on this useless war.