December28, 2006:
Pakistan is telling Afghan politicians that the Taliban is an
internal Afghan problem. The Afghans, however, claim that the Pakistani refusal
to exercise control over the Pushtun tribal areas along the Afghan border has
provided the Taliban with a safe haven. Pakistan insists that it has a deal
with the tribal chiefs along the border, to ban Taliban bases. But, in fact,
the Pakistani "deal" mainly had to do with foreign terrorists (al
Qaeda). Taliban operate openly on the Pakistani side of the border. The
Pakistanis control the large towns in the tribal areas, and will sometimes
arrest Afghan Taliban. But Pakistani Taliban are left alone. The Taliban is a
major law and order problem in southern Afghanistan, where about a quarter of
the population lives. The Taliban is seen a a minor problem in the Pakistani
tribal areas (where a few percent of the national population lives), a minor
problem that can be ignored most of the time. It's all a matter of proportion,
and in this case Afghanistan is on the losing end.
December
27, 2006: The U.S. confirmed, via forensic analysis, the recent death (on
December 19th) of Taliban senior commander Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Osmani. The
Taliban had denied that Osmani had been killed, while NATO intel forces tracked
his satellite phone, by a smart bomb. Although Osmani was blown to bits, the
U.S. had DNA data on him. The Taliban finally admitted that their guy got hit.
Osmani was the number three man in the Taliban chain of command, and in charge
of combat operations in southern Afghanistan.
December
26, 2006: Pakistan has offered to build a fence, and plant landmines, along
portions of the Afghan border, to prevent Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists from
crossing. Such a move would not stop the border crossings, but would slow them
down. Afghanistan opposes this, because the barriers would make it more
difficult for Pushtun tribesmen, from tribes that straddle the border, to
freely cross. The mines would, most likely, cause more injuries to civilians,
than to Taliban gunmen. Moreover, Afghanistan does not recognize parts of the
border, and wants Pakistan to shut down Taliban bases inside Pakistan. This is
difficult for Pakistan to do, as the tribes do not like outside interference,
and are currently undergoing a civil war of their own, as various factions
(traditional elders, Islamic conservatives, newly wealthy men) struggle for
control of the tribes.
December
25, 2006: The billion dollar American effort to create new national police
force ran up against some traditional problems. For one thing, most of the
potential recruits were illiterate (as is about two thirds of the Afghan
population), and very difficult to train. Moreover, most of the recruits
remained more loyal to their tribal leaders, than to their police commanders.
The police leadership was also inexperienced, and the traditional corruption
("it's OK to steal from someone outside my tribe") led to the theft
of much police equipment.) Changing Afghan traditions is not easy to do. Takes
time.
December
24, 2006: The Taliban are trying to avoid NATO smart bombs by staying as close
to Afghan civilians as possible. Human shields, in effect, because dead civilians
makes for great propaganda. The Western media loves that stuff, and will almost
always spin the story in such a way that the Taliban is off the hook. Many of
the civilians are aware of this, and are terrified when the Taliban show up,
looking for a place to stay. This has made it more difficult for NATO troops to
get at Taliban who are staying with civilians, as is often the case in the
Winter. Usual tactic is to surround the compound holding the Taliban and
civilians, bring up the interpreters and either negotiate, or call the Taliban
names ("you wankers are hiding behind women's skirts...") until they
come out to fight (and get killed.)
December
23, 2006: A Taliban suicide bomber attempted to kill an anti-Taliban member of
parliament. The attack, in Kabul failed, although some bystanders were
wounded.
December
22, 2006: A force of U.S., British and Canadian troops has trapped several
hundred Taliban gunmen in a valley 40 kilometers west of Kandahar. The Taliban
can surrender, try and fight their way out, or wait for the Western troops to
come clear them out, one house at a time. This operation is part of a campaign
that has already gone on for several weeks. So far, there have been over a
hundred NATO casualties (and five dead). Several hundred Taliban have been
killed so far. This is all part of the NATO Winter campaign, to take advantage
of the fact that Afghan warriors typically take shelter in villages during the
Winter, if only because they do not, like NATO troops, have the special
Winter clothing and robust supply system (aircraft and helicopters) to keep
them alive out there.