June 28, 2007:
The
province where the Taliban has been most active, Helmand, is also the source of
most of the poppy crops, and heroin production. Over half the national poppy
crop is in Helmand, and the Taliban was going to get paid big time by the drug
gangs if the police and army could be driven out of the province. That didn't
happen, and now the government is planning to shut down the drug industry in
Helmand. While the production will go elsewhere, this will take time and money,
and the government will just chase the new production. If the drug gangs are
not controlled, they will become a greater and greater challenge to government
authority. This happened, most notably, in places like Colombia and Burma. In
those countries, the government eventually got its act together and
successfully fought back.
June 27, 2007:
Taliban released sixteen Afghan de-miners they had held for four days. The Taliban
suspected the de-miners were government spies. De-miners are generally not
bothered, because they perform a vital service for everyone.
June 26, 2007: India
is sending another 130 security troops to guard Indian engineers and
technicians building roads in Afghanistan. These construction teams have
become a target of Taliban and bandit attacks. India already has 254 of their
special border police guarding the construction workers. More of the security
troops are being sent to increase the level of security in the face of more
Taliban threats. Some of the bandit gangs, and perhaps the Taliban as well, are
merely seeking to get payoffs. This is a common scam used against foreign aid
workers.
June 24, 2007: In
the last 24 hours, NATO forces spotted a force of several hundred Taliban
crossing the Pakistan border and apparently preparing to attack somewhere near
the border. NATO artillery and air power quickly attacked, as the Taliban fled
back towards Pakistan. About 80 of the Taliban were killed. A similar large
scale slaughter, of Taliban crossing the border, occurred last January. The
Taliban were more careful after that, but eventually got sloppy. This is likely
because of the heavy leadership losses this year. Many senior and middle-level
Taliban leaders have been killed or captured this year. These are the guys who
make sure stupid mistakes, like moving across the border in large enough groups
to get spotted by NATO UAVs.
June 22, 2007:
President Karzai complained that foreign troops were using smart bombs too
freely and killing too many (about 240 this year) civilians. But the only
alternative is to send infantry in to get Taliban troops taking shelter in
residential areas. If you have more infantry, you're just going to get them
killed by sending them in to root out the bad guys up close. You're not going
to save many civilian lives either. In Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia, the enemy
has been willing to fight from behind civilians. The American infantry, in
particular, know this from personal experience. You will have a major
morale problem on your hands if you try to do what Karzai asks. American and
NATO forces already make considerable efforts to limit civilian casualties.
That's why civilian casualties are so low. There are no cases of Afghan troops
or police volunteering to go in and fight the Taliban, rather than drop a smart
bomb on them. Karzai is playing to the media and opposition politicians, not
battlefield reality.