November 15, 2007:
Taliban attacks on remote government operations, usually district headquarters,
have fallen by half this year. This is because the Taliban have been unable to
come up with a way to defeat NATO tactics of quick response with UAVs and smart
bombs. The basic problem is that, in these remote areas, a large force of
Taliban are easy to spot from the air, and attack with smart bombs. If the
Taliban try to move a force of more than a dozen or so men, they are subject to
detection and destruction. Even if they split up into small groups, these are
detected, and intelligence troops have computer software that can see through
the Taliban tactics. While the drug gangs are more inclined to bribe government
officials to get what they want (no interference), the Taliban want control,
and they are having a hard time coming up with a winning plan. Meanwhile,
the Taliban efforts have gotten nearly 6,000 people killed so far this year,
most of them Taliban fighters. The 130 suicide bomb attacks so far this year
are not as terrifying as they are unpopular. The Taliban is increasingly trying
to terrorize people into backing them, and is unable to cope with the fact that
terror doesn't work unless you control the entire country. People have alternatives,
and they are increasingly choosing the anti-Taliban ones.
November 12, 2007: Some
75 percent of the supplies for foreign troops in Afghanistan, are trucked
through Pakistan. This is big business for Pakistani companies, including many
trucking companies owned by Pushtun businessmen. But the growing Taliban
violence along the border, and instability elsewhere in Pakistan, threatens
this. Thus NATO and American logistics experts are looking into getting the
stuff via Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to the north. Both of these countries have
rail links with Russia, and thus Europe. It takes an extra week or so, to ship
the containers via European ports and rail to the Afghan border, rather than to
Pakistani ports, then rail or trucks to the Afghan border. The Tajiks and
Uzbeks would love to have the business. The northern route would be more
expensive, not least because the Soviet era railroads are in disrepair, and
heavily used.
November 11, 2007:
In western Afghanistan, gunmen murdered six pro-government tribal elders near a
Mosque. The Taliban denied any involvement, something they are doing more often
as their murder campaign garners more ill will from the general public.
November 10, 2007: In
eastern Afghanistan, six NATO and three Afghan troops were killed while
returning from a meeting with tribal elders, in a remote village high in the
mountains (where helicopter operations are difficult). Eight NATO and
eleven Afghan troops were also wounded. That brings NATO dead this year to over
200, and at that rate, by the end of the year NATO will have suffered losses at
about one quarter the rate U.S. troops did in Vietnam.
November 9, 2007: In one
week we have the Taliban (or al Qaeda) sending a suicide bomber into a ceremony
opening a new factory north of Kabul, killing 59 school children and five
teachers (and a few politicians, the apparent targets). At least 75 died
altogether, and over a hundred other school children were wounded. Once the
number of dead children became known, the Taliban denied any involvement with
the attack. This despite their earlier boast that they would make attacks like
this (in areas where they did not have any popular support). A few days later
is was announced that the improved health care, since the overthrow of the
Taliban, meant that there were 89,000 more Afghan children alive this year.
While the Taliban believe in terrorism, they are also aware of what happens
when you kill a lot of women and children. The relatively unskilled suicide
bomber teams they are using are having a hard time avoiding civilian
casualties, or even hitting their intended target. That means more dead
civilians. As long as the dead come in small batches, the Taliban publicists
can deal with it. But when you kill more than a dozen kids at once, it's damage
control time. The Taliban just ignore the health care announcements,
or the fact that most parents want it for their kids, and want their
daughters to be educated. In the grand tradition of Pushtun tribal war, the
pro-Taliban Pushtun warlords are making a grab for power, and doing it in the
name of God. Nothing else matters. Really.