September 1,2008:
Al Qaeda's terror campaign in
Algeria reflects lessons learned in
Iraq. A real effort is made to avoid civilian deaths. Attacks are concentrated
on military and police and foreigners (al Qaeda does not want foreign investment
to improve the economy). The overall death rate is much lower now. During the
1992-2005 war, Algerian Islamic terrorists killed, on average, over 10,000
people a year (most of them civilians). That's more than ten times the number
al Qaeda is now killing in Algeria. But the relative lack of civilian dead
enables the new generation of Algerian terrorists to publicize their actions
more energetically.
The
government believes that there are only about 500 active al Qaeda members in
Algeria. The attacks are occurring mainly
in rural and suburban areas. The terrorists are being very careful in
establishing remote bases, communicating carefully and planning and carrying
out attacks meticulously. The terrorists do not have much support among the
people, and are not strong enough to bring down the government. But at the same
time, the corrupt and inefficient government has not been able to do much to
bring down the unemployment rate (near 20 percent, and much higher for men aged
18-30). This makes it easier for al Qaeda, and criminal gangs in general, to
recruit.
August 31,
2008: In the last week, Al Qaeda has
killed seven soldiers and police, and one prison guard, in a number of
incidents. In one case, soldiers came upon a fake police check point, run by al
Qaeda disguised as police. Cars were being stopped and robbed, as a way to
raise money for the cause. Another method is to raid illegal bars. While
alcohol is legal in Algeria, it is highly regulated, and forbidden by the
Koran. Being strict Moslems, al Qaeda has at least one cell that specializes in
raiding these illegal bars and taking all the cash they can find. In one recent
raid, they found one of the customers was a prison guard, and beheaded him on
the spot. All this causes the government to categorize al Qaeda as a bandit
problem, as a large criminal gang with a political and religious agenda.
Talks in Algeria,
between the Mali government and Tuareg rebels, has ironed out a peace deal,
which includes establishing a special army unit including soldiers and
ex-Tuareg rebels, to police the truce.
August 29,
2008: Moroccan police arrested fifteen
al Qaeda terrorists, who were in the midst of planning and preparing a series
of attacks. In the last five years, Morocco has prevented nearly all Islamic
terrorist violence by using an informant network, and a cooperative population,
to identify Islamic terrorists before they can act. Thousands of suspects have
been arrested and questioned, and about ten percent are still in jail.
August 27,
2008: In the last few days, terrorists
set off two roadside bombs. In the same period, six terrorist suspects were
killed. One bomb went off prematurely, killing the terrorist who was on his way
to emplacing it. Another was placed near a road, but exploded before the police
patrol vehicles were close enough to be damaged. This is consistent with what
the police know of the terrorists; that there are only a few dozen experienced
ones, with the rest being rather recent recruits. These newbies get most of
their training from documents downloaded from the Internet. This is a dangerous
way to learn, as recent incidents indicate.
August 24,
2008: Troops killed ten terrorists 250 kilometers
west of the capital, capturing. Assault rifles and RPGs were captured.