May 19, 2007:
Various government and rebel
(against either Sudan or Chad) groups continue to plot and maneuver against
each other along the Sudan border. The peace deal signed two weeks ago, at the
insistence of Saudi Arabia, is having no more impact than the previous
two, negotiated by Libya. Chad has also signed a deal to demobilize its
child (under 18) soldiers. This was done to ensure continued UN aid, and to
keep the UN donor nations happy. Child soldiers have become a popular cause in
the West. In Chad, child soldiers have never been an issue. For thousands of
years, if a boy was big enough to handle a weapon, he went off with the other
men to fight. That usually meant kids as young as 14 or 15 would join the
tribal war band. If he survived his first clash, his marriage prospects
improved considerably. What has changed now is that automatic weapons, and
firearms in general, have lowered the age, by 5-6 years, at which a kid
can be armed and dangerous. Moreover, warlords have replaced tribal elders as
the recruiters. The warlords often coerce kids to join up, whereas tribal
elders had to use a more friendly approach.
Libya and Saudi Arabia are continuing a long
running feud (over who is the leader of the Arab world) via their support for
different rebel factions in Chad. Libya has been interfering in Chadian affairs
for decades, partly because parts of northern Chad are claimed by Libya. In Chad,
the rebels are motivated partly by ancient tribal feuds, and partly over who
gets how much of the new oil wealth. Chad, like most African countries, was
assembled by European colonizers two centuries ago. The normal nation building
process, is for all the tribes and ethnic groups to work out a unification
arrangement over time. Many African nations are still trying to work out the
terms of unification, which is accompanied by much rebellion and
violence.
The UN is still trying to get Chad to accept peacekeepers,
but Chad doesn't want foreign troops on its territory. Partly, this is because
Chad sees this as a UN ploy to get peacekeepers into Sudan. Chad depends on
handouts from oil-rich Arab countries, and all of these Arab nations are
opposed to peacekeepers in Sudan. Chad also doesn't want peacekeepers, because
these foreign troops make it easier for foreign journalists to see and record
the various dirty dealings Chadian leaders regularly participate in. So
the violence will continue, at a low level, until the various Chadian factions
can work out a deal to share power and the oil money, or until someone gains a
military advantage, and can run their opponents (the leaders, anyway) out of
the country.
Meanwhile, a similar situation exists in neighboring
Central African Republic (CAR), except there the central government is weaker,
and there's no oil money to fight over (just power and real estate). As in
Chad, a few thousand French troops help keep the pro-French government in
power.