September 22, 2007:
China's primary threat is not the United States, or any other foreign power,
but internal disorder. There are more angry people in China every day, and the
government knows that this could blossom into widespread uprisings. It's
happened so many times before in Chinese history, and Chinese leaders are
always looking over their shoulders at the past.
There are fewer tools
available to deal with this, than there were a decade ago. The government has
lost the most, but not all, control over the media because of cell phones and
the Internet. Economic prosperity has been uneven, with the minority of Chinese
living near the coast earning more than three times what the poor farmers in
the interior make. The gap is growing. Because the government no longer tightly
controls mass media, the 700 million Chinese of the less wealthy interior, are
constantly reminded of their situation. Three million troops and security
personnel may not be enough to deal with widespread unrest among this
population.
The government is pouring
more money into economic growth programs for the interior, but the problems are
too large for this to work. Moreover, the biggest complaint is about corrupt
government officials, who are more interested in enriching themselves, than in
taking care of "the people." So the government is protecting itself in
other ways. The military and police have gotten raises and new uniforms. Higher
recruiting standards are in force, as are more anti-corruption efforts in the
military and police. New regulations give police more control over mass
gatherings. Each year, there are about 14,000 instances when a thousand or more
people gather together (usually for entertainment purposes, like sporting
events). From now on, anyone putting on an event of this size will have to give
the police more advance notice, and more details. This will enable the police
to more easily shut down large gatherings, which could spin out of control in
times of widespread unrest.
The government sees
religion as a constant threat. While Chinese are free to worship anyway they
want, the government picks religious leaders, and imposes discipline. Thus the
ongoing war against Falungong and Tibetan Buddhism. Both of these religions
refuse to accept government control and are persecuted. But the persecution has
not wiped out these two movements, and this, government officials know, sets a
dangerous example for other Chinese. Throughout Chinese history, governments
have been overthrown by religious movements, that harnessed and directed mass
discontent.
One interesting strategy,
meant to provide more economic opportunities for Chinese, and assure supplies
of raw materials, is the increasing investments in poor, but resource rich,
parts of the world. The government is investing $5 billion in Congo, which is
still coping with a civil war, and even in Somalia, which has suffered two
decades of civil disorder. Throughout Asia, the Pacific islands, Africa and Latin America, Chinese diplomats
and businessmen are ready to deal. China has established itself as the investor
of last resort. It's risky, but the payoffs can be spectacular. Thousands of
young Chinese take jobs working in their foreign hot-spots, seeking economic
opportunities they cannot find at home (because of competition, or lack of
opportunity because they live in a depressed interior region). China still has some credibility in poor
parts of the world. China is still seen by many as the "Land of Mao and
Revolution." Moreover, when the Chinese bring in their own people to
implement foreign aid deals, the Chinese workers are a lot cheaper than the ones
Western aid attracts. For many poor
parts of the world, Chinese investments are seen as more productive than
Western ones. This may not be the case in the long run, but for the moment, the
Chinese are making the most of their edge.