February 20, 2008:
Taiwan averted a military catastrophe recently
when it discovered that a new military communications system had been
compromised by a Chinese spy, who had bought secret codes from an employee of
the American supplier. Now the codes could be changed, but if the Chinese theft
had not been discovered, China could have disrupted Taiwanese air-defense communications
during an attack. At the same time, Taiwan finally overcame years of political
bickering, and agreed to buy 12 U.S. P-3C maritime patrol aircraft, to replace
22 smaller, and aging S-2, aircraft.
Meanwhile, back in China, the booming
economy has revealed a serious military weakness; the electricity supply. China
has not been able to build power plants quickly enough to keep up with an
economy that has been growing ten percent a year for several decades. The power
production and distribution systems are ramshackle, prone to breakdowns and
vulnerable to wartime attack. Knocking out a few plants and distribution
facilities could cause widespread power outages and severe shortages. Since the
Chinese military is very dependent on civilian infrastructure in wartime, these
power disruptions would impair any military activities.
The government's efforts to battle
corruption are hobbled by the lack of tools. The justice system does not favor
independent investigation and prosecution of corrupt officials (who have a lot
of power over the people and organizations that would investigate them.) Until
China changes its justice system, attempts to root out corruption at the local
level will be very difficult (as in "don't hold your breath waiting for it.")
China's Internet users are getting
restless. There are increasing attacks on government websites by Chinese
hackers annoyed at Chinese Internet censors. Moreover, about a quarter of all
Chinese Internet users maintain blogs, and the government Internet police are
having a hard time policing all these outspoken Internet users. The government
still enjoys the loyalty of many hackers, and Australia became the latest Western
country to openly complain of Internet based espionage from China. But the
Chinese governments increasingly energetic attempts to control the flow of
information on the Internet are encountering more and more resistance. It's
liable to get even uglier this Summer, as China hosts the Summer Olympics, and
plays hosts to thousands of foreign journalists. Chinese security police are
compiling a list of international "troublemakers"
(including journalists) who will either be barred from entering the country, or
kept under close watch if they are let in.
In the United States, a Chinese spy
ring was broken up, after nearly two decades of stealing classified data on the
American Space Shuttle program. This appears to account for the many
similarities between the U.S. and Chinese reusable space vehicle programs. But
this works both ways. The new United States "spy sub", the USS Ohio (which
carries commandos and over 150 cruise missiles) is visiting South Korea, and
apparently planning a clandestine tour down the Chinese coast, to see how well
prepared the Chinese are to deal with the kind of snooping this new type of American
sub is capable of.