November 25, 2008:
Despite the
popularity of anti-Americanism in Pakistan, the recent replacement of the military
government of general Musharraf, by an
elected one, has focused public ire on Islamic radicalism (Taliban and al
Qaeda). In addition, the Taliban are looked down on as the product of the poor,
ignorant and violent Pushtun border tribes. Al Qaeda is seen as a bunch of
homicidal foreigners. The Islamic radicals have a serious image problem. They
also have a tribal problem. Declaring oneself "Taliban" is a political,
religious and tribal decision. The
Taliban are dedicated to establishing a religious dictatorship, with religious
police enforcing a very restrictive lifestyle. As dissatisfied as most
Pakistanis are with their government, the Taliban is seen as worse. Al Qaeda
want to impose their own form of religious dictatorship, but are seen as
attempting to impose foreign clerical tyrants on Pakistan. That doesn't fly
with most Pakistanis either. Pakistanis are still unhappy. As they should be,
given how corrupt and inefficient their government is. But at the moment, the Islamic
militants are sliding in the popularity polls. Suicide bombing are not numerous
enough to overthrow the government, and make more Pakistanis hostile to Islamic
radicalism.
In the Pakistani tribal areas, the war
against the Taliban has become more and more a tribal conflict between pro and
anti-Taliban tribes. With over 100,000 soldiers siding with the anti-Taliban
tribes, the Taliban are fighting a losing battle, in the Winter, against their
enemies. The anti-Taliban furor is increased with tribesmen telling reporters
about encounters with Chechen, Uzbek, Tajik, Sudanese and Afghan terrorists
fighting alongside the Taliban tribesmen. Only about a third of Pakistanis have
a favorable attitude towards al Qaeda and Islamic terrorism, and most of these
live in areas where there is no Islamic terrorism or pro-Taliban tribes.
In the Bajaur district of Pakistan,
which is right on the Afghan border, NATO and Afghan troops on the Afghan side
are coordinating operations with Pakistani troops on the other side. Taliban and
al Qaeda fighters are trying to cross the border to find sanctuary in Afghanistan,
but the Afghans are attacking them.
Unable to cope with the Pakistani army
and police, Islamic radicals are devoting more effort to terror attacks. Many
of these are being directed at local anti-Taliban leaders. But this results in
suicide bomb attacks on mosques and funerals, which just enflames anti-Taliban
anger. The battle against the Taliban is getting very personal, with
anti-Taliban tribal groups going for the homes of Taliban leaders, burning them
down and driving the families out.
In Indian Kashmir, the decline in
terrorist activity has led to an increase in political activity by separatist
Moslems. The Moslem majority in Kashmir now wants peace, but many also want the
Hindus (both soldiers and remaining civilians) out. The Indians will not go, so
the street demonstrations continue. The political struggle in Kashmir is
between separatists (the minority, and prone to violence) and the moderates
(who are tired after more than a decade of separatist violence.)
India's Hindu radical BJP party is on
the defensive as more revelations show Hindu terrorists have been bombing both
Hindu and Moslem targets in an attempt to start a religious war. Since Moslems
are only 14 percent of the population, they would lose such a war, and most
would die or be driven out of the country. That possibility has kept most
Moslems from supporting terrorism, thus the Hindu nationalists use of attacks
on Hindu targets in an attempt to get the hate going.
In northwest Pakistan, there was
another breakout of religious violence between Shia (20 percent of the
population) and Sunni (most of the rest) radicals. At least half a dozen people
have died. There are dozens of Islamic terror groups in Pakistan, many of them
more intent on fighting other Moslems than in going after infidels
(non-Moslems).
November 24, 2008: Army and police
operations around Peshawar (the largest city in the Pakistani tribal zone)
resulted in several dozen terrorists dead or arrested. Large weapons stores
were discovered and seized. The police also extended the city boundaries to
include another 25 villages, putting these under police, not tribal, rule. This
provides less area for terrorists to hide out in, close to the city.
November 20, 2008: The Pakistani
government staged an event for the media, where troops "practiced"
shooting down UAVs. In practice, these aircraft are difficult to detect,
especially at night, much less hit. But the media event was mainly to show the
Pakistani people that the government was serious about stopping the American UAV
missile attacks on Taliban and al Qaeda leaders. In fact, the government
benefits greatly from these attacks, but nationalist politicians are more
interested in scoring political and media points. Some politicians blame the
increasing use of suicide bombs on the UAV attacks. But the Islamic terrorists
are interested mainly in terrorizing the population into allowing the militants
to take over, not just as retaliation for Hellfire missiles killing terrorist
leaders.
November 18, 2008: For the first time,
an American UAV fired a Hellfire missile at a Pakistani target outside the
tribal territories along the Afghan border. This attack killed six foreign
terrorists. The attack, at Bannu, is just across the border of the tribal
territories. However, it enraged Pakistani nationalists, who now threaten
demonstrations to block truck traffic into Pakistan. This is how NATO and U.S. forces
get 75 percent of their supplies. Such demonstrations could get bloody, as lots
of people depend on that truck traffic for their livelihood. The tribes that
straddle the border are paid to keep the routes safe, and may use violence
against any demonstrators. The trucks must traverse several hundred kilometers of
tribal territory on their way to military bases in Kabul and throughout
southern Afghanistan.