December 17, 2008:
India believes
Pakistan is, as it did in 2001 (after Pakistani based terrorists attacked the
Indian parliament building) going through the motions of cracking down on the
terrorist organizations. In 2001, Lashkar e Toiba (which planned the recent
Mumbai attacks) and Jamaatud Dawa (which provided money and other support) had
its leaders put under house arrest and its offices closed temporarily. When the
media heat was off Pakistan, the terrorist leaders were released, and the
terrorist organizations reopened their offices under new names. For the last
six years, India has been negotiating with Pakistan to reverse that decision.
But Pakistan insists that the terrorists dedicated to seizing Kashmir from
India are too popular, inside Pakistan, to really shut down. Since Mumbai,
India is pressuring Pakistan to really, really shut down operations like Lashkar
e Toiba. Pakistan is resisting, as in 2001, and apparently hoping to get away
with doing nothing again. That's won't be easy. The international community,
including the UN, has recognized Lashkar e Toiba and Jamaatud Dawa as terrorist organizations and is threatening to
declare Pakistan a "terrorist state." That would be interesting, as
Pakistan has nuclear weapons and is in danger of falling apart.
Another problem Pakistan and India have
with Islamic terrorists is agreeing on the importance of Kashmir (which both
countries have claimed for over half a century). Islamic radicals claim that
Kashmir is a similar situation to Palestine, where non-Moslems (Israeli Jews)
occupy Moslem land, and must be expelled. What many Indians see here is not
"injustice against Moslems", but the long held Islamic radical belief
that the entire planet is "Islamic territory" and that it is the duty
of every Moslem to support the worldwide conversion process. That's what it
says on most Islamic radical web sites, and in sermons given by radical
clerics. Even the Islamic radicals know that declaring war on the entire world
is counter-productive, so to outsiders they pitch Palestine and Kashmir as
isolated cases of injustice that should be corrected. But the real agenda is
global control, and India knows that it is referred to as the next big
conquest. Lashkar e Toiba and Jamaatud Dawa propagandists constantly talk about
"completing the Islamic conquest of India" (a process that has been
going on for over a thousand years, and has so far produced Pakistan and
Bangladesh, but over 150 million Moslems in India are being ruled by infidels.)
This all sounds absurd to most Westerners, but Islamic radicals take it very
seriously.
Britain is also pressuring Pakistan to
really shut down the terrorist infrastructure. Counter-terrorism efforts in
Britain have found that 75 percent of the serious terrorist plots could be
traced back to training camps or supporting organizations in Pakistan. Same
deal inside India, and the Afghans are similarly incensed about Pakistani
support for the Taliban.
In Pakistan's tribal territories, over
200,000 soldiers and police continue to battle over a million pro-Taliban
tribesmen. But that war is also between pro and anti-Taliban tribes. The
fighting here is vicious, with raiding parties from both sides seeking out the
homes of enemy leaders, burning the compounds down and killing tribal leaders
who oppose them.
The attacks on NATO/U.S. supplies being
trucked through Pakistan, appears to be an attempt jack up the cost of moving
the goods. The drivers want a raise, from $700 per trip (Peshawar in the tribal
territories, 236 kilometers to Kabul) to $1,200. A few hundred dollars a month
is a real good wage in Pakistan, and a driver can make several trips from Peshawar
to Kabul a month. The tribes and police
that guard the route want bigger tips as well. It already costs several
thousand dollars to move each cargo container from the port of Karachi to
Kabul, and lots of people along the way see this as an opportunity to get rich.
While the Taliban take responsibility for recent attacks, the trucking
companies are getting demands from local groups for more money to stop the
violence. The attacks, on some of the dozen major shipping container and truck
depots around Peshawar, appear to be the work of local gangs, not distant
pro-Taliban tribesmen. Meanwhile, NATO and the U.S. are developing alternative
supply routes via Russia and the Caucasus. The objective here is to be able to
abandon the Pakistani route completely. This provides an incentive for the
Pakistanis to lower prices and improve security on the Karachi to Kabul route.
Peshawar is not only the scene of a
battle over lucrative trucking income, but also between pro and anti-Taliban
factions. It's really a war by the Islamic radicals, to impose a more
restrictive lifestyle on everyone. The Taliban have made themselves
particularly unpopular because of efforts to close schools, especially schools
that educate girls.
Another bit of scandalous behavior in
Pakistan is the recent assassination of a retired army general, who had
attempted to publicize the existence of pro-Taliban generals, and their
activities. The dead officer, major general Amir Faisal Alavi, is the brother-in-law
of Nobel prize winning writer V S Naipaul, making it difficult for authorities
in Pakistan bury the story along with general Alavi.
India continues fighting low level
terrorism in the east (Maoists, which has killed about 600 so far this year)
and northwest (Kashmir, where about 550 have died so far this year). Islamic
terrorism in the rest of India has killed nearly 500 this year, and nearly has
thousand have died from tribal and Maoist violence in the northeast tribal
territories. That's about 2,500 deaths this year, compared to about 6,500 in
Pakistan (nearly all caused by Islamic radicals)
December 15, 2008: In Baluchistan
(southwest Pakistan) another bomb cut a main rail line temporarily. Tribal separatists have been fighting, without
much success, for more autonomy and a larger share of gas and oil revenues.